CSKA Moscow vs Fakel Prediction, Tips & Odds
CSKA Moscow vs Fakel
Match Preview
The model favours CSKA Moscow to win against Fakel, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. CSKA Moscow currently sits in second place in the league with four points from two matches, reflecting a solid start to their campaign. Their offensive output has been decent with three goals scored and only two conceded, indicating a positive goal difference of one. However, their recent form shows some inconsistency, with only one win in their last five matches, suggesting that they may need to find greater stability. Fakel, on the other hand, is struggling at 14th place with no points from their opening match of the season. They have managed to score only one goal while conceding two, resulting in a negative goal difference. Their recent form is also concerning, with two wins in their last five matches, which may not be enough to inspire confidence going into this fixture. They will need to improve their defensive performance if they hope to secure any points against a higher-ranked opponent. Based on the data, the model provides CSKA Moscow with a win probability that suggests a strong likelihood of victory, along with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage indicates that CSKA is favoured to win by a significant margin. However, a potential caveat is their recent form, which could lead to a surprising result if they do not perform up to expectations. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where the in-house model utilises expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
CSKA Moscow manage games at home, conceding just 1.58 goals per match. Fakel score 1.10 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.4% probability.
CSKA Moscow have been the stronger side, winning 33% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 CSKA Moscow win as the most likely scoreline at 17.4% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature CSKA Moscow clean sheets, in line with their 6% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. CSKA Moscow are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
CSKA Moscow vs Fakel| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.55 | 4.25 | 6.20 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.94 | 1.77 | |
| 1.57 | 4.17 | 6.24 | 1.98 | 1.91 | — | — | |
| 1.50 | 3.81 | 5.61 | 1.96 | 1.90 | — | — | |
| 1.59 | 4.31 | 6.46 | 2.00 | 1.94 | 1.96 | 1.77 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (CSKA Moscow leads 5-1)In their last 10 encounters, CSKA Moscow has won 5 matches, drawn 4, and Fakel has claimed 1 victory. The scorelines indicate a generally competitive series, with several tightly contested matches, highlighted by four draws and a mix of narrow and wider margins of victory. CSKA Moscow's wins include a notable 4-1 result, while Fakel's sole win came in a cup match, suggesting that they have struggled to gain an upper hand in league play. The most recent draw occurred in 2025, showing that Fakel has not secured a win against CSKA Moscow since their last triumph in 2023.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Krasnodar | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 18 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Spartak Moscow | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 13 | DWWLW |
| 3 |  Zenit | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 12 | WLWLW |
| 4 | CSKA Moscow | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 12 | DWWDD |
| 5 |  Baltika | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 10 | WDLWW |
| 6 |  Dynamo | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 10 | WWLWL |
| 14 |  Lokomotiv | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 3 | LLDDL |
| 15 |  Akron | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 3 | DLDDL |
| 16 | Fakel | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2 | LDLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCSKA Moscow have won 8 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat CSKA Moscow 3-2 and lost to CSKA Moscow 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 11D 13L from the last 36 games (33% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Fakel have won 2 of their last 9 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Akhmat 2-1 and lost to CSKA Moscow 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 4W 7D 9L from the last 20 games (20% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedCSKA Moscow4-1-4-1Confirmed
Fakel5-3-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
3 playersCSKA Moscow1
Fakel2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
I. Tanashev has averaged 8.0 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
CSKA Moscow have averaged 4.9 corners per match at home; Fakel 4.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
CSKA Moscow have generated 3.12 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 33% of them. They put 5.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. CSKA Moscow player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
