Fakel vs Akhmat Prediction, Tips & Odds
Fakel vs Akhmat
Match Preview
The model favours Akhmat to win against Fakel, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Akhmat has shown strong form recently, with an unbeaten streak of five matches, recording three wins and two draws. This consistent performance has positioned them as a competitive side in the league, reflecting their ability to maintain pressure and convert opportunities into points. Fakel, on the other hand, has had a more mixed run of form, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. While they have shown glimpses of potential, their inconsistency could be a concern as they look to secure points at home. The ability to bounce back from setbacks will be crucial for their chances in this match. According to the model, Akhmat has a strong win probability based on their recent performances, while Fakel will need to improve their form to challenge effectively. One potential caveat is that home advantage could play a role for Fakel, as they will be eager to perform in front of their supporters. For a deeper understanding of how these predictions are formulated, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals alongside actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Fakel manage games at home, conceding just 1.43 goals per match. Akhmat score 1.52 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.7% probability.
Akhmat have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Akhmat are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Fakel vs Akhmat| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.40 | 3.32 | 2.24 | 2.27 | 1.64 | 1.92 | 1.79 | |
| 3.42 | 3.33 | 2.24 | 2.29 | 1.65 | — | — | |
| 2.98 | 2.95 | 2.20 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.48 | 3.40 | 2.30 | 2.35 | 1.70 | 1.92 | 1.80 | |
Superbet | 3.20 | 3.20 | 2.27 | 2.27 | 1.59 | 1.95 | 1.76 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 6 Meetings (Fakel leads 3-1)In the last six matches between Fakel and Akhmat, Fakel has won three times, Akhmat has won once, and there have been two draws. The scorelines indicate a generally competitive rivalry, with three matches ending in a draw or a one-goal margin, highlighting tight contests. However, Fakel's victories include a 3-2 win and a 2-0 win, suggesting they have been capable of both close and more decisive results. Akhmat's last win in this fixture came over a year ago, indicating a recent trend favoring Fakel.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Zenit | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 6 | WW |
| 2 |  Spartak Moscow | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | WW |
| 3 |  FC Krasnodar | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | WW |
| 4 |  Baltika | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 6 | WWL |
| 5 |  Dinamo Makhachkala | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 6 |  CSKA Moscow | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | DDW |
| 12 | Akhmat | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 | LD |
| 14 |  Akron | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 1 | DLL |
| 15 | Fakel | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 0 | LL |
| 16 |  Rodina Moskva | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 | LL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFakel have won 2 of their last 7 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Dynamo 0-1 and lost to Dinamo Makhachkala 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 4W 4D 6L from the last 14 games (29% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Akhmat have won 2 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Akhmat 1-1 and beat Radnik Bijeljina 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 9D 5L from the last 27 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
2 playersFakel1
Akhmat1
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
A. Sukhoy has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by A. Sukhoy to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Fakel have averaged 4.7 corners per match at home; Akhmat 5.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Akhmat have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 48% of their matches and averaging 1.5 goals per game. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Akhmat player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
