Sporting CP vs Guimaraes Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sporting CP vs Guimaraes
Match Preview
The model favours Guimaraes to win this match against Sporting CP, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Guimaraes enters this season with a strong recent form, having won four of their last five matches, including a solid run towards the end of the previous season. Their consistency and ability to secure points, especially in crucial matches, suggest they are well-prepared for the start of this campaign. In contrast, Sporting CP's recent form shows they have faced some challenges, with four wins in their last five but a loss that could indicate vulnerabilities. Their position in the standings, starting at ninth, highlights the need to build momentum early in the season. The team will be looking to overcome any lingering issues from last season and establish a stronger presence in the league. According to the model, Guimaraes has a significant win probability, reflecting their stronger finish last season and overall consistency. However, an honest caveat is that the opening match can often yield unexpected results, and Sporting CP could leverage home advantage to spring a surprise. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, crafted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results over the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.8% probability.
Sporting CP have been the stronger side, winning 63% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Sporting CP win as the most likely scoreline at 15.8% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature Sporting CP clean sheets, in line with their 37% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 1 bookmaker. Sporting CP are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Sporting CP vs Guimaraes| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.19 | 6.60 | 13.00 | 1.42 | 2.80 | 2.00 | 1.73 | |
| 1.16 | 7.10 | 14.00 | 1.38 | 2.64 | 1.99 | 1.71 | |
| 1.17 | 7.00 | 15.00 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.19 | 7.11 | 12.10 | 1.43 | 2.80 | — | — | |
| 1.18 | 8.20 | 16.00 | 1.38 | 2.64 | 1.99 | 1.73 | |
Betano | 1.22 | 6.70 | 12.50 | 1.47 | 2.77 | 2.05 | 1.72 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Sporting CP leads 7-2)In the last 10 matches between Sporting CP and Guimaraes, Sporting CP has won 7 times, Guimaraes has won 2 times, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a tendency for Sporting CP to dominate, with 5 of their victories coming by a margin of at least two goals, including a notable 5-1 win. Guimaraes' two wins are less frequent and include a narrow 2-1 victory, while the draw featured an unusual high-scoring 4-4 match. Overall, Sporting CP's strong record suggests a lopsided historical rivalry, with Guimaraes last winning in early 2026.
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Maritimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 2 |  Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 4 |  Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 5 |  Estrela | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 6 |  Estoril | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 7 | Guimaraes | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 17 |  Academico Viseu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 |  Alverca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSporting CP have won 13 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Sporting CP 4-1 and beat Sporting CP 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 7D 4L from the last 30 games (63% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Guimaraes have won 3 of their last 11 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-3 and lost to Nacional 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 3D 10L from the last 24 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSporting CP
No reported absences
Guimaraes
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Sporting CP have averaged 10.2 corners per match at home; Guimaraes 5.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 8.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Sporting CP have generated 2.20 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 63% of them. They put 7.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Sporting CP player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
