Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami Prediction, Tips & Odds
Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami
Match Preview
The model favours Chicago Fire to win against Inter Miami, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Chicago Fire currently sits in third place in the standings, having played 20 matches with 11 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses. Their goal difference of 11, with 37 goals scored and 26 conceded, highlights a solid attacking performance combined with a relatively strong defence. In their last five matches, they have secured three wins, one draw, and only one loss, indicating good form as they aim to solidify their playoff position. On the other hand, Inter Miami is in second place with 39 points from 21 matches, boasting a record of 11 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses. Despite their higher league position, their recent form has been concerning, as they have not won any of their last five matches, suffering four losses and only managing one draw. Their goal-scoring has been prolific, with 49 goals, but their defensive record shows vulnerability, having conceded 40 goals this season. The model suggests a win probability of around 55% for Chicago Fire and a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage indicates that Chicago Fire is favoured to win by a margin of one goal. However, the caveat lies in Inter Miami's potential to turn their form around; if they can find their scoring touch, they could pose a significant challenge. For a detailed explanation of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that assesses fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 10.8% probability.
Chicago Fire have been the stronger side, winning 46% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-2 draw as the most likely scoreline at 10.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Chicago Fire are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.12 | 4.10 | 2.80 | 1.25 | 3.75 | 1.25 | 3.60 | |
| 2.30 | 4.10 | 2.55 | 1.18 | 3.85 | 1.21 | 3.84 | |
| 2.25 | 4.00 | 2.63 | 1.20 | 4.20 | 1.20 | 4.20 | |
| 2.37 | 4.23 | 2.66 | 1.25 | 4.10 | — | — | |
| 2.28 | 3.93 | 2.41 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.25 | 3.80 | 2.50 | — | — | 1.25 | 3.75 | |
| 2.35 | 4.10 | 2.60 | 1.22 | 4.20 | 1.25 | 3.75 | |
| 2.28 | 4.10 | 2.55 | 1.23 | 3.95 | 1.24 | 3.65 | |
| 2.25 | 3.80 | 2.50 | 1.22 | 4.00 | 1.25 | 3.75 | |
Betano | 2.32 | 4.35 | 2.57 | 1.26 | 3.90 | 1.25 | 3.70 |
Superbet | 2.35 | 4.10 | 2.62 | 1.24 | 4.10 | 1.24 | 3.80 |
BetVictor | 2.30 | 4.20 | 2.50 | 1.20 | 4.20 | 1.20 | 4.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Chicago Fire leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between Chicago Fire and Inter Miami, Chicago Fire has won 5 times, Inter Miami has won 3 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of outcomes, with several matches being closely contested; however, Chicago Fire has had a few dominant performances, including a 5-3 win and a 4-1 victory. The presence of three draws suggests that matches between these teams can be tightly contested, while Inter Miami's last win against Chicago Fire dates back to April 2024, indicating a challenging period for them in this fixture.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 26 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 59 | 26 | 33 | 50 | DWLWL |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 27 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 55 | 21 | 34 | 60 | WWDLD |
| 2 |  New England Revolution | 27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 45 | 36 | 9 | 46 | LWWWL |
| 2 |  St. Louis City | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 48 | 36 | 12 | 47 | WWWDW |
| 3 | Inter Miami | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 64 | 50 | 14 | 46 | LDDDD |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 50 | 42 | 8 | 47 | WDWWW |
| 5 | Chicago Fire | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 46 | 38 | 8 | 42 | WLLDD |
| 14 |  Minnesota United FC | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 29 | LLLLL |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 27 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 34 | 54 | -20 | 24 | WLLLL |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 27 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 32 | 65 | -33 | 21 | LWLWL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonChicago Fire have won 10 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Chicago Fire 1-2 and drew with Chicago Fire 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 9D 12L from the last 39 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Inter Miami have won 10 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Inter Miami 2-1 and drew with Chicago Fire 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 12D 8L from the last 38 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedChicago Fire4-3-3Confirmed
Inter Miami4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
10 playersChicago Fire4
Inter Miami6
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Chicago Fire have averaged 4.3 corners per match at home; Inter Miami 4.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Chicago Fire have generated 1.37 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 46% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Chicago Fire player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
