Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution Prediction, Tips & Odds
Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution
Match Preview
The model favours Chicago Fire to win this match against New England Revolution, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Chicago Fire currently sits in third place in the standings, having accumulated 37 points from 21 matches with a record of 11 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses. Their goal difference of +11 reflects a solid attacking performance, scoring 39 goals while conceding 28. Recent form shows a slight upward trend with two wins in their last five matches, suggesting they are finding their rhythm. In contrast, New England Revolution is positioned fourth, also with 37 points but having played one more game. Their record stands at 11 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal difference of +9. The Revolution has struggled recently, managing only two wins in their last five outings, which could indicate issues in maintaining consistency. Their defensive record is slightly better than Chicago's, but their recent form does not inspire confidence. The model indicates a win probability of 55% for Chicago Fire, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage to consider is the likelihood of Chicago scoring first, which could significantly impact the match's outcome. However, if New England can capitalize on any defensive lapses from Chicago, they could turn the tide in their favour. The full method of this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.1% probability.
Chicago Fire have been the stronger side, winning 43% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Chicago Fire are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.67 | 4.30 | 4.20 | 1.44 | 2.75 | 1.45 | 2.55 | |
| 1.96 | 3.94 | 3.24 | 1.39 | 2.61 | 1.40 | 2.68 | |
| 1.95 | 3.80 | 3.40 | 1.44 | 2.63 | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
| 2.03 | 3.91 | 3.51 | 1.48 | 2.76 | — | — | |
| 2.00 | 3.75 | 3.10 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 2.05 | 3.80 | 3.20 | 1.48 | 2.60 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 1.67 | 4.10 | 4.40 | 1.46 | 2.63 | 1.49 | 2.45 | |
| 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.20 | 1.40 | 2.75 | 1.44 | 2.63 | |
Betano | 2.05 | 3.95 | 3.50 | 1.50 | 2.67 | 1.44 | 2.67 |
BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.90 | 3.20 | 1.40 | 2.75 | 1.36 | 2.80 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Chicago Fire leads 2-1)In the last 10 matches between Chicago Fire and New England Revolution, Chicago Fire has secured 2 wins, with 7 matches ending in draws and New England Revolution winning once. This record indicates a notably competitive rivalry, with a high frequency of draws suggesting closely contested games. The scorelines reflect a mix of narrow victories and several tightly fought matches, with only one match ending with a clear winner. Notably, New England Revolution's last win against Chicago Fire was in May 2024, highlighting the Fire's relative strength in recent encounters.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 53 | 23 | 30 | 46 | LWLWW |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 25 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 50 | 21 | 29 | 54 | DLDWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 61 | 46 | 15 | 45 | DDDWL |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 43 | LWDDL |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 43 | WWWDL |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 41 | 31 | 10 | 43 | WWLWD |
| 5 | Chicago Fire | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 45 | 35 | 10 | 39 | LDDDD |
| 14 |  Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 28 | DDDDL |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 18 | WLLLD |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 31 | 51 | -20 | 21 | LLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonChicago Fire have won 9 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Inter Miami 1-1 and beat Santos Laguna 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 10D 10L from the last 35 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
New England Revolution have won 4 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat New England Revolution 1-2 and beat New York City FC 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 7D 11L from the last 33 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedChicago Fire4-3-3Confirmed
New England Revolution4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
8 playersChicago Fire4
New England Revolution4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Chicago Fire have averaged 4.7 corners per match at home; New England Revolution 5.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Chicago Fire have generated 1.52 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 43% of them. They put 5.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Chicago Fire player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
