Club Queretaro vs Leon Prediction, Tips & Odds
Club Queretaro vs Leon
Match Preview
The model favours Club Queretaro to win against Leon, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Queretaro currently sits in 7th place in the Liga MX standings, having accumulated 10 points from their six matches this season. Their goal difference of +2 reflects a balanced approach, scoring 9 goals while conceding 7. Despite a mixed recent form with one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches, they have shown resilience at home, which could play a crucial role in this fixture. Leon, positioned just below Queretaro in 8th, also has 10 points but has a slightly inferior goal difference of +2, having scored 8 goals and conceded 6. Their recent form is stronger, featuring three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. This suggests they are finding their rhythm, which could pose a challenge for Queretaro. However, their away performances may not be as consistent as their home outings, potentially impacting their effectiveness in this matchup. The model indicates a win probability of 55% for Queretaro, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market insight is that Queretaro is likely to dominate possession, which could lead to more scoring opportunities. A caveat is that if Leon manages to adapt quickly to Queretaro's style of play, they could exploit any defensive lapses. For a detailed explanation of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.4% probability.
Club Queretaro have been the stronger side, winning 34% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Club Queretaro are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Club Queretaro vs Leon| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.45 | 3.40 | 2.61 | 1.70 | 2.06 | 1.56 | 2.24 | |
| 2.40 | 3.60 | 2.63 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.57 | 2.38 | |
| 2.57 | 3.56 | 2.72 | 1.76 | 2.13 | — | — | |
| 2.34 | 3.24 | 2.54 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.40 | 3.20 | 2.50 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.20 | |
| 2.55 | 3.40 | 2.70 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 2.45 | 3.40 | 2.61 | 1.70 | 2.06 | 1.56 | 2.28 | |
Betano | 2.50 | 3.45 | 2.72 | 1.72 | 2.18 | 1.55 | 2.35 |
BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.40 | 2.60 | 1.67 | 2.03 | 1.53 | 2.30 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Leon leads 5-2)In the last 10 matches between Club Queretaro and Leon, Leon leads with 5 wins, while Club Queretaro has won 2 times and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of tight contests and more decisive victories, with Leon achieving heavy wins, including a 4-0 and a 3-0. The two clubs have shared a number of draws, suggesting competitive matches, but Leon's recent dominance is notable, as Club Queretaro has not won against Leon since April 2024. Overall, the head-to-head record reflects Leon's stronger position in this matchup.
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 17 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Toluca | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 16 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Club America | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 16 | LWWWW |
| 4 |  Cruz Azul | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 15 | WWWLL |
| 5 | Club Queretaro | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 13 | WWLDW |
| 6 |  Club Tijuana | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 13 | LWLWD |
| 12 | Leon | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 10 | LDWWW |
| 16 |  Atletico San Luis | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 6 | LWDLD |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 | WLDLL |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 23 | -19 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonClub Queretaro have won 4 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Club Queretaro 1-2 and beat Club Queretaro 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 10D 9L from the last 29 games (34% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Leon have won 5 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Leon 3-1 and lost to Toluca 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 3D 14L from the last 33 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersClub Queretaro
No reported absences
Leon
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Ismael Rosario Lopez Penuelas has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Ismael Rosario Lopez Penuelas to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Club Queretaro have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; Leon 4.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Club Queretaro have generated 1.81 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 34% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Club Queretaro player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
