Monterrey vs Cruz Azul Prediction, Tips & Odds
Monterrey vs Cruz Azul
Match Preview
The model favours Monterrey to win against Cruz Azul, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Monterrey currently sits in 10th place with a record of three wins and three losses from six matches. They have scored 13 goals while conceding 10, giving them a goal difference of three. Recent form shows a slight upward trend with two wins in their last five matches, indicating they are beginning to find their rhythm. Cruz Azul, on the other hand, is positioned 6th in the league with four wins and three losses from seven matches, earning them 12 points. They have netted 12 goals and conceded 11, resulting in a goal difference of one. However, their recent form has been concerning, with only two wins in their last five matches, including three consecutive losses before their latest victory. This inconsistency could be a factor in their performance. The model output indicates a win probability that favours Monterrey, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage to consider is Monterrey's home advantage, which can often play a critical role in their performance. However, a potential caveat is Monterrey's defensive vulnerabilities, as they have allowed 10 goals so far this season. The full method of this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, based on an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season, as employed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.7% probability.
Monterrey have been the stronger side, winning 32% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Monterrey are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Monterrey vs Cruz Azul| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.16 | 3.60 | 2.90 | 1.60 | 2.23 | 1.50 | 2.38 | |
| 2.15 | 3.70 | 2.90 | 1.57 | 2.38 | 1.53 | 2.45 | |
| 2.25 | 3.82 | 3.05 | 1.66 | 2.31 | — | — | |
| 2.24 | 3.30 | 2.77 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.15 | 3.30 | 2.80 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.20 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 2.18 | 3.60 | 2.92 | 1.60 | 2.23 | 1.50 | 2.42 | |
Betano | 2.27 | 3.55 | 2.95 | 1.62 | 2.35 | 1.50 | 2.50 |
BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.60 | 3.00 | 1.59 | 2.16 | 1.50 | 2.40 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Cruz Azul leads 7-1)In the last 10 matches between Monterrey and Cruz Azul, Cruz Azul has won 7 times, with Monterrey securing just 1 win and 2 matches ending in a draw. This record indicates a clear dominance by Cruz Azul, particularly highlighted by their ability to achieve multiple victories, including a notable 4-0 win. The matches have featured a mix of close contests and more decisive outcomes, but Cruz Azul's frequent success suggests a challenging history for Monterrey against them. Notably, Monterrey has not won against Cruz Azul in their last six encounters.
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 17 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Toluca | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 16 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Club America | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 16 | LWWWW |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 15 | WWWLL |
| 5 |  Club Queretaro | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 13 | WWLDW |
| 6 |  Club Tijuana | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 13 | LWLWD |
| 11 | Monterrey | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 10 | DLLWW |
| 16 |  Atletico San Luis | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 6 | LWDLD |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 | WLDLL |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 23 | -19 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonMonterrey have won 7 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Monterrey 1-3 and beat Monterrey 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 7D 14L from the last 31 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Cruz Azul have won 11 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 1. Their recent away fixtures include beat Necaxa 1-3 and beat Toluca 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 22W 11D 5L from the last 38 games (58% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersMonterrey
No reported absences
Cruz Azul
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Jesus Rafael Lopez Valle has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Jesus Rafael Lopez Valle to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Monterrey have averaged 6.5 corners per match at home; Cruz Azul 5.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Monterrey have generated 1.53 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 32% of them. They put 4.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Monterrey player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
