Corinthians vs Cruzeiro Prediction, Tips & Odds
Corinthians vs Cruzeiro
Match Preview
The model favours Corinthians to win this match against Cruzeiro, projecting a scoreline of 1-0. Currently sitting in 9th place, Corinthians have shown a steady improvement in form, remaining unbeaten in their last five matches with two wins and three draws. Their defensive record is solid, conceding just 20 goals while scoring 22, which gives them a positive goal difference of 2. This stability at the back could be crucial as they look to climb the standings. On the other hand, Cruzeiro, positioned just above Corinthians in 7th place, have had a more inconsistent run lately, with only two wins in their last five matches. They have scored more goals than Corinthians, with 27, but their defense has been a concern, allowing 30 goals, resulting in a negative goal difference of -3. This vulnerability could be exploited by a confident Corinthians side. The model indicates a win probability of around 45% for Corinthians, with a projected score of 1-0. However, a key caveat is that if Cruzeiro can find their offensive rhythm and exploit any defensive lapses from Corinthians, they could turn the tide. The full method of this prediction, based on expected goals and actual results, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Corinthians have kept a clean sheet in 49% of matches. Cruzeiro average 1.4 goals per game.
Corinthians manage games at home, conceding just 0.76 goals per match. Cruzeiro score 1.35 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 18.1% probability.
Corinthians have been the stronger side, winning 44% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 18.1% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Corinthians clean sheets, in line with their 49% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Corinthians are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Corinthians vs Cruzeiro| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.26 | 2.98 | 3.40 | 2.55 | 1.50 | 2.05 | 1.70 | |
| 2.27 | 2.94 | 3.44 | 2.56 | 1.49 | 2.08 | 1.65 | |
| 2.25 | 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.40 | 1.50 | 1.95 | 1.75 | |
| 2.34 | 3.05 | 3.60 | 2.67 | 1.51 | — | — | |
| 2.26 | 2.86 | 3.36 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.25 | 2.80 | 3.40 | — | — | 2.10 | 1.67 | |
| 2.25 | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.60 | 1.48 | 2.10 | 1.67 | |
| 2.34 | 3.02 | 3.54 | 2.56 | 1.49 | 2.08 | 1.67 | |
| 2.32 | 2.95 | 3.25 | 2.50 | 1.50 | 2.04 | 1.70 | |
| 2.25 | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.50 | 1.44 | 2.10 | 1.67 | |
Betano | 2.32 | 3.00 | 3.55 | 2.60 | 1.53 | 2.05 | 1.72 |
BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.44 | 1.47 | 2.10 | 1.65 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Cruzeiro leads 4-3)In the last 10 matches between Corinthians and Cruzeiro, the record stands at 3 wins for Corinthians, 3 draws, and 4 wins for Cruzeiro. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several tight matches, including three draws and six matches decided by a single goal. Cruzeiro's victories include two heavy wins of 3-0, while Corinthians has recorded a notable win of 2-1. The most recent draw was in February 2026, suggesting that both teams are capable of matching each other, but Cruzeiro has a slight upper hand historically in this fixture.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 44 | 20 | 24 | 51 | WLDWL |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 45 | LWWDD |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 20 | 11 | 41 | DWDWW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 36 | 29 | 7 | 41 | WWDDD |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 34 | 33 | 1 | 39 | WWWWL |
| 6 |  Bahia | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 34 | 28 | 6 | 37 | WDDDD |
| 10 | Corinthians | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 26 | 24 | 2 | 32 | LLWDD |
| 19 |  Vasco DA Gama | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 24 | 38 | -14 | 22 | LLDDL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 23 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 24 | 46 | -22 | 14 | WDLDL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCorinthians have won 11 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Rosario Central 1-0 and lost to Cruzeiro 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 13D 10L from the last 41 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Cruzeiro have won 8 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Flamengo 2-1 and beat Corinthians 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 14D 8L from the last 43 games (49% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedCorinthians4-2-3-1Confirmed
Cruzeiro4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
13 playersCorinthians7
Cruzeiro6
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
D. Lacerda has averaged 6.0 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Corinthians have averaged 4.5 corners per match at home; Cruzeiro 6.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Corinthians have generated 0.96 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 44% of them. They put 4.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Corinthians player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
