Cruzeiro vs Flamengo Prediction, Tips & Odds
Cruzeiro vs Flamengo
Match Preview
The model favours Flamengo to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against Cruzeiro. Flamengo currently sits in second place in the Serie A standings, having accumulated 39 points from 20 matches. Their season has been characterised by a strong attack, scoring 37 goals while conceding only 18, giving them a goal difference of +19. With three wins and two draws in their last five matches, Flamengo is in solid form, demonstrating consistency and resilience. Conversely, Cruzeiro is in seventh place with 30 points from 21 games, having won 8, drawn 6, and lost 7. Their goal tally stands at 27 goals scored, but they have also conceded 30, resulting in a negative goal difference of -3. Despite having secured three wins in their last five matches, Cruzeiro has shown vulnerabilities in defence, which could be exploited by a potent Flamengo attack. The model gives Flamengo a win probability of approximately 58%, with a projected score of 2-1. One caveat is that if Cruzeiro can capitalise on any defensive lapses from Flamengo, they could potentially turn the tide. For further details on our prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Cruzeiro manage games at home, conceding just 0.95 goals per match. Flamengo score 2.24 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.1% probability.
Flamengo have been the stronger side, winning 64% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Flamengo are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Cruzeiro vs Flamengo| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.00 | 3.35 | 2.28 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.77 | 1.95 | |
| 3.15 | 3.22 | 2.25 | 1.95 | 1.82 | 1.72 | 1.98 | |
| 3.10 | 3.25 | 2.20 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 2.05 | |
| 3.31 | 3.33 | 2.32 | 2.05 | 1.84 | — | — | |
| 2.95 | 3.05 | 2.26 | 2.01 | 1.83 | — | — | |
| 3.00 | 3.10 | 2.25 | — | — | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 3.20 | 3.25 | 2.30 | 1.95 | 1.85 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 3.24 | 3.32 | 2.32 | 1.99 | 1.86 | 1.72 | 2.01 | |
| 3.00 | 3.25 | 2.32 | 2.04 | 1.74 | 1.77 | 1.94 | |
| 3.00 | 3.10 | 2.25 | 1.95 | 1.80 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
Betano | 3.35 | 3.35 | 2.32 | 1.98 | 1.87 | 1.72 | 2.05 |
Superbet | 3.15 | 3.30 | 2.32 | 1.92 | 1.88 | 1.70 | 2.07 |
BetVictor | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.25 | 1.90 | 1.78 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Flamengo leads 6-1)In the last 10 matches between Cruzeiro and Flamengo, Flamengo has won 6 times, Cruzeiro has won once, and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines indicate a tendency for Flamengo to secure their victories with a mix of narrow wins, such as 2-1, and more decisive outcomes like 3-1. Cruzeiro's sole victory was a close 2-1 win, while they have struggled to find consistent success, with their last win against Flamengo occurring over two years ago. The presence of three draws suggests some competitive matches, but overall, Flamengo has maintained a stronger head-to-head record in recent encounters.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 44 | 20 | 24 | 51 | WLDWL |
| 2 | Flamengo | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 45 | LWWDD |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 20 | 11 | 41 | DWDWW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 36 | 29 | 7 | 41 | WWDDD |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 34 | 33 | 1 | 39 | WWWWL |
| 6 |  Bahia | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 34 | 28 | 6 | 37 | WDDDD |
| 19 |  Vasco DA Gama | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 24 | 38 | -14 | 22 | LLDDL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 | |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 23 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 24 | 46 | -22 | 14 | WDLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCruzeiro have won 13 of their last 23 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Flamengo 2-1 and drew with Flamengo 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 14D 8L from the last 43 games (49% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Flamengo have won 12 of their last 22 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Flamengo 2-1 and beat Mirassol 1-5.
Overall, the wider run reads 27W 9D 6L from the last 42 games (64% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
9 playersCruzeiro4
Flamengo5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
R. Pereira has averaged 3.5 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 3.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Cruzeiro have averaged 6.0 corners per match at home; Flamengo 5.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Flamengo have generated 1.49 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 64% of them. They put 5.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Flamengo player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
