CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov Prediction, Tips & Odds
CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov
Match Preview
The model favours CSKA Moscow to win, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against FC Rostov. CSKA Moscow, despite their recent struggles, has shown potential throughout the season and currently holds a competitive position in the league. Their performance metrics suggest they have the ability to generate more scoring opportunities, which could be crucial in this matchup. On the other hand, FC Rostov has faced challenges lately, with only one win in their last five matches, alongside two draws and two losses. This inconsistency may hinder their ability to compete effectively against a team like CSKA Moscow, which, despite its own form issues, has a deeper squad and a history of performing well in high-pressure situations. The model estimates a win probability of approximately 60% for CSKA Moscow, with a projected score of 2-1. A key market percentage to consider is the likelihood of CSKA Moscow scoring more than one goal, which stands at a solid 65%. However, a potential caveat is Rostov's home advantage; if they manage to capitalize on set pieces or counter-attacks, they could turn the tide. The full method used for this prediction involves an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season, as detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.2% probability.
FC Rostov have been the stronger side, winning 32% of their matches.
Our model projects a 0-1 FC Rostov win as the most likely scoreline at 16.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. FC Rostov are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 6.05 | 4.05 | 1.61 | 1.93 | 1.93 | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| 6.15 | 4.12 | 1.64 | 1.97 | 1.97 | 1.90 | 1.82 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (CSKA Moscow leads 4-2)In the last 10 matches between FC Rostov and CSKA Moscow, the record stands at 2 wins for FC Rostov, 4 draws, and 4 wins for CSKA Moscow. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches ending in draws, including three goalless encounters. While CSKA Moscow has secured more victories, the matches have often been closely contested, with only a few heavy wins; notably, CSKA Moscow's 3-1 and 2-0 victories. FC Rostov's last win against CSKA Moscow came in November 2024, suggesting a challenging period for them in this matchup.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Krasnodar | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Zenit | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 6 | LWW |
| 3 |  Spartak Moscow | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | LWW |
| 4 |  Baltika | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 6 | WWL |
| 5 |  Dinamo Makhachkala | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 6 | LWW |
| 6 | CSKA Moscow | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | DDW |
| 8 | FC Rostov | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | DWL |
| 14 |  Krylia Sovetov | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 2 | LDD |
| 15 |  Fakel | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 1 | DLL |
| 16 |  Akron | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 1 | DLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCSKA Moscow have won 6 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with FC Rostov 0-0 and drew with Krylia Sovetov 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 11D 11L from the last 32 games (31% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
FC Rostov have won 5 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include drew with FC Rostov 0-0 and beat Akron 0-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 7D 12L from the last 28 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedCSKA Moscow4-1-4-1Confirmed
FC Rostov3-4-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
3 playersCSKA Moscow1
FC Rostov2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
V. Kazartsev has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
CSKA Moscow have averaged 3.5 corners per match at home; FC Rostov 5.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
FC Rostov have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 32% of their matches and averaging 1.3 goals per game. They put 3.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. FC Rostov player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
