Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika Prediction, Tips & Odds
Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika
Match Preview
The model favours Baltika to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-0 against Krylia Sovetov. Baltika comes into this fixture with solid form, having secured three wins and one draw in their last five matches. Their recent performance indicates a resurgence, particularly with their ability to find the back of the net consistently, which could pose problems for Krylia Sovetov. In contrast, Krylia Sovetov has struggled significantly, managing only one draw and four losses in their last five outings. This lack of form is concerning, as they have not been able to convert opportunities into points, leaving them vulnerable in their upcoming match. The team's season has been marred by difficulties in both defence and attack, which could be exploited by a confident Baltika side. The model gives Baltika a strong win probability heading into this match, with a projected score of 2-0. One key market percentage to consider is their likelihood of scoring at least two goals, given Krylia Sovetov's defensive issues. However, a potential caveat is Krylia's home advantage, which could lead to an unexpected performance. The full methodology for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, crafted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 20% of matches. Baltika average 1.5 goals per game.
Krylia Sovetov manage games at home, conceding just 1.57 goals per match. Baltika score 1.54 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.9% probability.
Baltika have been the stronger side, winning 43% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Baltika are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Krylia Sovetov vs Baltika| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.16 | 3.18 | 2.44 | 2.35 | 1.60 | 1.95 | 1.76 | |
| 3.19 | 3.19 | 2.46 | 2.39 | 1.61 | — | — | |
| 2.92 | 2.95 | 2.23 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.24 | 3.26 | 2.50 | 2.43 | 1.66 | 1.95 | 1.78 | |
Superbet | 3.00 | 3.05 | 2.45 | 2.35 | 1.55 | 2.00 | 1.73 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Baltika leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between Krylia Sovetov and Baltika, Baltika has the edge with 5 wins, while Krylia Sovetov has won 3 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several close matches; however, Baltika has secured a few decisive victories, including a 2-0 win and a 2-1 win. The draw frequency suggests that neither team is completely dominant, though Baltika's recent success indicates they have been more effective in their encounters. Krylia Sovetov's last victory against Baltika came in 2023, showing they can compete but need to address their recent record.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Krasnodar | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Zenit | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 6 | LWW |
| 3 |  Spartak Moscow | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | LWW |
| 4 | Baltika | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 6 | WWL |
| 5 |  Dinamo Makhachkala | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 6 | LWW |
| 6 |  CSKA Moscow | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | DDW |
| 14 | Krylia Sovetov | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 2 | LDD |
| 15 |  Fakel | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 1 | DLL |
| 16 |  Akron | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 1 | DLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonKrylia Sovetov have won 7 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Baltika 0-2 and lost to FK Sokol Saratov 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 7D 13L from the last 30 games (33% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Baltika have won 6 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include beat Baltika 0-2 and lost to Zenit 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 8D 8L from the last 28 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedKrylia Sovetov4-2-3-1Confirmed
Baltika5-4-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
2 playersKrylia Sovetov
No reported absences
Baltika2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
A. Chistyakov has averaged 4.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 3.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Krylia Sovetov have averaged 4.8 corners per match at home; Baltika 3.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Baltika have generated 1.05 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 43% of them. They put 3.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Baltika player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
