CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv Prediction, Tips & Odds
CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv
Match Preview
The model favours CSKA Moscow to win against Lokomotiv, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. CSKA Moscow currently sits in 6th place in the league, having played three matches this season, with one win and two draws. Their goal difference stands at +1, with three goals scored and two conceded. This solid start reflects a resilient side, particularly as they have not yet lost a match. In contrast, Lokomotiv is positioned 10th, with no wins in their three matches so far. They have managed two draws but suffered one loss, resulting in a goal difference of -1, having scored two goals and conceded three. Their form has been concerning, with no victories in their last five matches, which may weigh heavily on their confidence as they face a stronger opponent. The model gives CSKA Moscow a win probability of around 60%, with the projected score of 2-1 reflecting their current form and standing. However, one caveat is that if Lokomotiv manages to tighten their defence and find their scoring touch, they could pose a challenge. The full method of this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, crafted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which utilizes an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.4% probability.
CSKA Moscow have been the stronger side, winning 32% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. CSKA Moscow are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.91 | 3.75 | 3.98 | 1.71 | 2.15 | 1.60 | 2.19 | |
| 1.93 | 3.72 | 4.06 | 1.73 | 2.18 | — | — | |
| 1.94 | 3.39 | 3.36 | 1.69 | 2.17 | — | — | |
| 1.96 | 3.84 | 4.08 | 1.77 | 2.22 | 1.60 | 2.22 | |
Superbet | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.55 | 1.67 | 2.12 | 1.58 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (CSKA Moscow leads 4-2)In the last ten matches between CSKA Moscow and Lokomotiv, CSKA Moscow has won 4 times, Lokomotiv has won 2 times, and there have been 4 draws. The scorelines indicate a balanced rivalry, with several closely contested matches, as evidenced by the four draws and narrow victories. Notably, CSKA's wins include a significant 4-1 victory in August 2023, while Lokomotiv's heaviest win was a 3-0 result in October 2025. The last time Lokomotiv won was in August 2024, suggesting a slight edge for CSKA in recent matchups.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Krasnodar | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Spartak Moscow | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 12 | WWLWW |
| 3 | CSKA Moscow | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 11 | WWDDW |
| 4 |  Zenit | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 9 | LWLWW |
| 5 |  Dinamo Makhachkala | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 9 | LWLWW |
| 6 |  Baltika | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 | DLWWL |
| 14 | Lokomotiv | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3 | LDDLD |
| 15 |  Fakel | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 | DLDLL |
| 16 |  Akron | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 2 | LDDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCSKA Moscow have won 7 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Lokomotiv 3-2 and lost to Akron 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 11D 12L from the last 34 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lokomotiv have won 3 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Lokomotiv 3-2 and lost to FC Rostov 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 11D 9L from the last 35 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
5 playersCSKA Moscow3
Lokomotiv2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
K. Levnikov has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
CSKA Moscow have averaged 3.1 corners per match at home; Lokomotiv 4.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
CSKA Moscow have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 32% of their matches and averaging 1.4 goals per game. They put 4.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. CSKA Moscow player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
