Estac Troyes vs Paris FC Prediction, Tips & Odds
Estac Troyes vs Paris FC
Match Preview
The model favours Estac Troyes to win against Paris FC, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Estac Troyes enters the new season with a solid foundation, having ended the last campaign on a high note with four wins and one draw in their last five matches. This strong form suggests they have momentum, which could be crucial in their first match of the season. On the other hand, Paris FC's recent form has been mixed, with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. While they finished the previous season with some competitive performances, their inconsistency may hinder their ability to start the new season strongly. The model output indicates a win probability that leans towards Estac Troyes, highlighting their advantageous position and recent form. However, a caveat exists: if they struggle to adapt to the pressure of the opening match or if Paris FC finds their rhythm quickly, the outcome could shift. For a detailed understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.7% probability.
Estac Troyes have been the stronger side, winning 62% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Estac Troyes are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Estac Troyes vs Paris FC| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.90 | 3.45 | 2.30 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.55 | 2.30 | |
| 3.32 | 3.74 | 2.16 | 1.76 | 2.09 | 1.60 | 2.19 | |
| 3.25 | 3.40 | 2.15 | 1.65 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
| 3.40 | 3.53 | 2.22 | 1.79 | 2.13 | — | — | |
| 3.09 | 3.35 | 2.14 | 1.76 | 2.11 | — | — | |
| 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.10 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.25 | |
| 3.30 | 3.40 | 2.15 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 3.37 | 3.80 | 2.19 | 1.81 | 2.15 | 1.60 | 2.22 | |
| 3.25 | 3.30 | 2.14 | 1.72 | 2.10 | 1.55 | 2.33 | |
| 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.10 | 1.75 | 2.05 | 1.62 | 2.25 | |
Betano | 3.20 | 3.55 | 2.18 | 1.75 | 2.12 | 1.60 | 2.25 |
Superbet | 3.30 | 3.55 | 2.20 | 1.73 | 2.12 | 1.61 | 2.27 |
BetVictor | 3.20 | 3.60 | 2.15 | 1.70 | 1.99 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Paris FC leads 6-1)In the last 10 matches between Estac Troyes and Paris FC, Paris FC has won 6 times, Estac Troyes has secured 1 win, and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines indicate a relatively strong advantage for Paris FC, with several narrow victories, including four matches decided by a single goal. Estac Troyes' last victory against Paris FC was notable in December 2020, highlighting a stretch of six matches without a win against them. The overall pattern suggests Paris FC has had the upper hand in recent encounters, with a mix of tight and competitive fixtures.
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Monaco | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 | Paris FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 7 | WWD |
| 3 |  Lyon | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 7 | WDW |
| 4 |  Lille | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | WDW |
| 5 |  Rennes | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 7 | WWD |
| 6 |  Strasbourg | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 6 | WWL |
| 9 | Estac Troyes | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 4 | LWD |
| 16 |  Le Havre | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 | LDL |
| 17 |  Toulouse | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 | LDL |
| 18 |  Auxerre | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonEstac Troyes have won 4 of their last 6 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 0. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Estac Troyes 0-0 and drew with Estac Troyes 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 3D 2L from the last 13 games (62% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Paris FC have won 3 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 8 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Estac Troyes 0-0 and lost to Angers 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 10D 6L from the last 26 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
7 playersEstac Troyes2
Paris FC5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Bollengier has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Estac Troyes have averaged 4.5 corners per match at home; Paris FC 2.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Estac Troyes have generated 0.42 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 62% of them. They put 3.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Estac Troyes player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.