Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg Prediction, Tips & Odds
Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg
Match Preview
The model favours Estac Troyes to win against Strasbourg with a projected scoreline of 1-0. Estac Troyes currently sits in 13th place in the Ligue 1 standings, having played one match this season, which ended in a draw. Their recent form shows an unbeaten streak of two wins and three draws over the last five matches, indicating a level of resilience and consistency that could be crucial in this matchup. On the other hand, Strasbourg is struggling at 18th place after one match, which they lost heavily, conceding four goals without scoring. Their recent form is concerning, with no wins in their last five matches, including four consecutive losses. This lack of form and confidence may impact their performance against a Troyes side that has shown they can hold their own. According to the model output, Estac Troyes has a win probability of approximately 55%, while Strasbourg's chances sit around 20%. The key market indicator suggests a tight contest, but Troyes is expected to edge this one out. One caveat to consider is that early-season matches can be unpredictable, and a single moment of brilliance or a defensive lapse could change the outcome. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.5% probability.
Estac Troyes have been the stronger side, winning 62% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Estac Troyes are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.18 | 1.90 | 1.85 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 2.96 | 3.48 | 2.46 | 1.84 | 1.99 | 1.63 | 2.14 | |
| 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.30 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.98 | 3.47 | 2.48 | 1.88 | 2.04 | — | — | |
| 2.75 | 3.05 | 2.28 | 1.91 | 1.93 | — | — | |
| 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.30 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.20 | |
| 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.40 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 3.02 | 3.54 | 2.49 | 1.90 | 2.05 | 1.63 | 2.17 | |
| 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.28 | 1.88 | 1.91 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
Betano | 3.15 | 3.40 | 2.30 | 1.91 | 1.93 | 1.67 | 2.10 |
Superbet | 3.05 | 3.40 | 2.40 | 1.90 | 1.92 | 1.70 | 2.12 |
BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.40 | 1.76 | 1.92 | 1.62 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 9 Meetings (Estac Troyes leads 3-2)In the last nine matches between Estac Troyes and Strasbourg, the record stands at 3 wins for Estac Troyes, 3 draws, and 2 wins for Strasbourg. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with a notable number of draws, as four of the matches ended level. While Estac Troyes has secured some heavier victories, such as a 4-0 win, the recent encounters have generally been close, with several matches ending in a 1-1 draw. Strasbourg's last win in this fixture dates back to February 2018, suggesting a slight edge for Estac Troyes in recent history.
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lille | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 10 | WWDW |
| 2 |  Monaco | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 10 | DWWW |
| 3 |  Rennes | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | WWWD |
| 4 |  Lyon | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 8 | DWDW |
| 5 |  Paris FC | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 8 | DWWD |
| 6 | Strasbourg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 7 | DWWL |
| 12 | Estac Troyes | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 | LLWD |
| 16 |  Le Havre | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 | DLDL |
| 17 |  Toulouse | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2 | DLDL |
| 18 |  Nice | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 2 | LDLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonEstac Troyes have won 4 of their last 6 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 0. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Estac Troyes 0-0 and drew with Estac Troyes 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 3D 2L from the last 13 games (62% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Strasbourg have won 4 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Marseille 4-0 and drew with Newcastle 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 7D 14L from the last 33 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
8 playersEstac Troyes3
Strasbourg5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
G. Paradis has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Estac Troyes have averaged 4.5 corners per match at home; Strasbourg 3.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Estac Troyes have generated 0.42 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 62% of them. They put 3.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Estac Troyes player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
