Estoril vs Casa Pia Prediction, Tips & Odds
Estoril vs Casa Pia
Match Preview
The model favours Estoril to win against Casa Pia, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Estoril currently sits in 17th place in the Primeira Liga, having played four matches this season, with a record of no wins, one draw, and three losses. Despite their struggles, they have managed to score two goals while conceding seven, resulting in a goal difference of -5. Their recent form shows some signs of improvement, with two draws in their last five matches, indicating potential for a turnaround. On the other hand, Casa Pia is at the bottom of the league table in 18th place, having played five matches without a win. They have yet to score a goal this season, with their defensive record showing eleven goals conceded and a goal difference of -11. Their form is concerning, as they have lost four of their last five matches, with only one draw to show for their efforts. This lack of offensive output poses a significant challenge as they head into this fixture. The model gives Estoril a win probability of approximately 60%, with Casa Pia's chances sitting at 20%. One key market percentage to consider is the likelihood of Estoril scoring at least two goals. However, a caveat is that both teams are struggling, and a surprise result is possible if Casa Pia can find their scoring touch. The full methodology of our prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis comes from The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which employs an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.5% probability.
Estoril have been the stronger side, winning 27% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.5% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Estoril clean sheets, in line with their 19% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Estoril are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Estoril vs Casa Pia| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.68 | 3.80 | 4.60 | 1.78 | 1.97 | 1.74 | 1.95 | |
| 1.70 | 3.80 | 4.75 | 1.80 | 1.90 | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| 1.70 | 4.02 | 4.97 | 1.83 | 2.06 | — | — | |
| 1.72 | 3.46 | 4.24 | 1.83 | 2.01 | — | — | |
| 1.73 | 3.60 | 4.50 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.70 | 3.80 | 5.00 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.75 | 3.96 | 4.80 | 1.85 | 2.04 | 1.74 | 1.98 | |
Betano | 1.75 | 3.90 | 5.10 | 1.83 | 2.02 | 1.75 | 2.00 |
BetVictor | 1.65 | 3.70 | 4.60 | 1.74 | 1.94 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Estoril leads 4-1)In the last 10 matches between Estoril and Casa Pia, Estoril has won 4 times, there have been 5 draws, and Casa Pia has won once. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with a notable frequency of draws at 50%. Estoril's victories include a significant 4-0 win, highlighting their capacity for heavy wins, while Casa Pia's sole victory came in a 2-0 match, suggesting they have struggled to score against Estoril. The last win for Casa Pia dates back to December 2024, emphasizing Estoril's recent dominance in this fixture.
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Sporting CP | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 13 | WWWWD |
| 3 |  Santa Clara | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 11 | WDWWD |
| 4 |  Benfica | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 10 | WWWD |
| 5 |  Arouca | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 9 | WLWW |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | LDWW |
| 16 |  Alverca | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2 | LDLDL |
| 17 | Estoril | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 | LLLD |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 11 | -11 | 1 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonEstoril have won 4 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Estoril 0-2 and drew with Estoril 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 7D 12L from the last 26 games (27% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Casa Pia have won 2 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Casa Pia 0-0 and lost to GIL Vicente 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 10D 12L from the last 27 games (19% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersEstoril
No reported absences
Casa Pia
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Pedro Miguel Torres Ramalho has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Pedro Miguel Torres Ramalho to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Estoril have averaged 4.0 corners per match at home; Casa Pia 4.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Estoril have generated 1.35 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 27% of them. They put 4.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Estoril player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
