Estrela vs Academico Viseu Prediction, Tips & Odds
Estrela vs Academico Viseu
Match Preview
The model favours Estrela to win against Academico Viseu, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Estrela currently sits in 9th place in the Primeira Liga, having played four matches this season, with a record of one win and three draws. Their goal difference stands at +1, with nine goals scored and eight conceded. This season, they have shown resilience, remaining unbeaten in their last five matches, which includes two wins and three draws. On the other hand, Academico Viseu is positioned 10th and has played five matches, achieving one win, two draws, and two losses. They have scored five goals but conceded eight, resulting in a negative goal difference of -3. Their recent form reveals struggles, with only one win in their last five matches, including two draws and two losses. This inconsistency may hinder their ability to secure points against a more stable Estrela side. According to the model, Estrela has a win probability of approximately 55%, with the projected score being 2-1. One caveat to consider is that if Academico Viseu manages to improve their attacking efficiency, they could pose a significant threat. The full method used by The Daily Punt Analysis Team is based on an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Estrela manage games at home, conceding just 1.54 goals per match. Academico Viseu score 1.36 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.2% probability.
Estrela have been the stronger side, winning 25% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.2% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Estrela clean sheets, in line with their 25% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Estrela are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Estrela vs Academico Viseu| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.03 | 3.30 | 3.58 | 1.91 | 1.83 | 1.74 | 1.95 | |
| 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.60 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| 2.10 | 3.43 | 3.76 | 1.99 | 1.90 | — | — | |
| 2.06 | 3.15 | 3.26 | 1.95 | 1.89 | — | — | |
| 2.05 | 3.10 | 3.50 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.60 | 1.95 | 1.85 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 2.12 | 3.44 | 3.73 | 1.98 | 1.90 | 1.74 | 1.98 | |
Betano | 2.12 | 3.35 | 3.60 | 1.98 | 1.87 | 1.75 | 2.02 |
BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.40 | 1.87 | 1.80 | 1.73 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 4 Meetings (Estrela leads 3-0)In the last four encounters between Estrela and Academico Viseu, Estrela has won three times while one match ended in a draw, with Academico Viseu yet to secure a victory. The scorelines indicate a generally dominant performance by Estrela, highlighted by two heavy wins of 4-0. The matches have featured a mix of tight contests, such as the 1-1 draw and the 2-1 victory for Estrela, but overall, Academico Viseu has struggled to find the net, with their last win against Estrela occurring before this recent stretch of matches.
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Sporting CP | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 13 | WWWWD |
| 3 |  Santa Clara | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 11 | WDWWD |
| 4 |  Benfica | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 10 | WWWD |
| 5 |  Arouca | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 9 | WLWW |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | LDWW |
| 9 | Estrela | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 6 | DWDD |
| 10 | Academico Viseu | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 | WLDLD |
| 16 |  Alverca | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2 | LDLDL |
| 17 |  Estoril | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 | LLLD |
| 18 |  Casa Pia | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 11 | -11 | 1 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonEstrela have won 6 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Famalicao 2-2 and beat Al-Nassr 4-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 10D 11L from the last 28 games (25% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Academico Viseu have won 3 of their last 8 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include beat Academico Viseu 0-1 and drew with Maritimo 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 5D 4L from the last 14 games (36% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedEstrela4-2-3-1Confirmed
Academico Viseu4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersEstrela
No reported absences
Academico Viseu
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Andre Narciso has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Andre Narciso to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Estrela average 1.3 goals per match at home; Academico Viseu 1.4 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Estrela have generated 0.73 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 25% of them. They put 3.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Estrela player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
