FC Porto vs Benfica Prediction, Tips & Odds
FC Porto vs Benfica
Match Preview
The model favours FC Porto to win against Benfica, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. FC Porto currently sits atop the Primeira Liga standings with a perfect record, having won all five of their matches, scoring 11 goals while conceding just one. Their goal difference of +10 highlights their dominant defensive and attacking capabilities, showcasing their ability to control games effectively. Benfica, on the other hand, is positioned fourth, with three wins and one draw from four matches, accumulating 10 points. They have also shown strong form, scoring 14 goals and conceding only three, resulting in a goal difference of +11. Their attacking prowess is evident, but they face a significant challenge in breaking down FC Porto's resilient defense. The model gives FC Porto a win probability of approximately 60%, with a projected score of 2-1. However, one caveat to consider is that Benfica's recent form has been impressive, and they could exploit any lapses in Porto's defense. For a detailed understanding of how we reached this prediction, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.5% probability.
FC Porto have been the stronger side, winning 63% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. FC Porto are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
FC Porto vs Benfica| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.82 | 3.25 | 2.42 | 1.86 | 1.88 | 1.65 | 2.08 | |
| 2.88 | 3.30 | 2.45 | 1.90 | 1.87 | 1.65 | 2.20 | |
| 2.96 | 3.35 | 2.52 | 1.93 | 1.96 | — | — | |
| 2.72 | 3.17 | 2.34 | 1.92 | 1.92 | — | — | |
| 2.80 | 3.10 | 2.40 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 2.88 | 3.30 | 2.45 | 1.85 | 1.95 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 2.94 | 3.39 | 2.52 | 1.93 | 1.95 | 1.65 | 2.11 | |
Betano | 2.95 | 3.40 | 2.57 | 1.91 | 1.93 | 1.67 | 2.12 |
BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.30 | 2.38 | 1.82 | 1.85 | 1.65 | 2.10 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Benfica leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between FC Porto and Benfica, Benfica has won 5 times, FC Porto has won 3 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of close encounters and more decisive victories, with Benfica securing a notable 4-1 win and FC Porto achieving a dominant 5-0 victory. However, the recent matches have been tightly contested, with several low-scoring games, including three fixtures ending in draws or 1-0 results. The last time FC Porto triumphed over Benfica was in April 2023, suggesting a competitive rivalry with no team consistently dominating.
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Sporting CP | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 13 | WWWWD |
| 3 |  Santa Clara | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 11 | WDWWD |
| 4 | Benfica | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 10 | WWWD |
| 5 |  Arouca | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 9 | WLWW |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | LDWW |
| 16 |  Alverca | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2 | LDLDL |
| 17 |  Estoril | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 | LLLD |
| 18 |  Casa Pia | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 11 | -11 | 1 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFC Porto have won 13 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 0. Their recent home fixtures include beat Moreirense 2-1 and beat Arouca 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 6D 5L from the last 30 games (63% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Benfica have won 7 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include beat Benfica 0-3 and beat Aarhus 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 5D 4L from the last 28 games (68% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFC Porto
No reported absences
Benfica
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Miguel Bertolo Nogueira has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Miguel Bertolo Nogueira to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
FC Porto have averaged 8.2 corners per match at home; Benfica 6.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 8.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
FC Porto have generated 1.74 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 63% of them. They put 6.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. FC Porto player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
