Estoril vs Famalicao Prediction, Tips & Odds
Estoril vs Famalicao
Match Preview
The model favours Estoril to win against Famalicao, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Estoril enters the season in a strong position, having finished last season in third place. Although they are yet to play this season, their recent form shows one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches, suggesting they have the potential to build momentum heading into the new campaign. On the other hand, Famalicao finds themselves at the bottom of the standings, in 18th place. They have yet to secure a victory this season, but their recent form is more promising, with three wins and two draws in their last five matches. This indicates that they can be competitive, even if they are starting the season from a disadvantaged position. The model output indicates a win probability of 60% for Estoril, with a projected score of 2-1. One key caveat to consider is that early-season matches can be unpredictable, with teams still finding their rhythm. For a detailed breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team uses an in-house model that evaluates fixtures based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Estoril manage games at home, conceding just 1.52 goals per match. Famalicao score 1.22 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.6% probability.
Estoril have been the stronger side, winning 30% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Estoril are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Estoril vs Famalicao| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.25 | 3.25 | 2.20 | 1.85 | 1.90 | 1.65 | 2.10 | |
| 3.36 | 3.06 | 2.23 | 1.90 | 1.87 | 1.67 | 2.05 | |
| 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.15 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.49 | 3.01 | 2.29 | 1.93 | 1.89 | — | — | |
| 2.83 | 3.07 | 2.12 | 1.94 | 1.88 | — | — | |
| 3.00 | 3.25 | 2.20 | — | — | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.15 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 3.50 | 3.18 | 2.32 | 1.96 | 1.92 | 1.67 | 2.08 | |
Betano | 3.35 | 3.30 | 2.25 | 1.90 | 1.95 | 1.65 | 2.15 |
BetVictor | 3.10 | 3.30 | 2.15 | 1.85 | 1.82 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Famalicao leads 6-3)In the last 10 matches between Estoril and Famalicao, Famalicao has won 6 times, Estoril has won 3 times, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate that Famalicao has often been dominant, with several heavy victories, including a 4-0 win and a 3-0 win. Estoril's wins have been narrower, with their largest margin being 2-0. The lone draw reveals some competitive matches, but overall, Famalicao's recent record suggests a strong advantage, with Estoril last defeating them over a year ago in August 2022.
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Estrela | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 |  Guimaraes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | Estoril | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 |  GIL Vicente | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 |  Rio Ave | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 |  Santa Clara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 16 |  Academico Viseu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 17 |  Alverca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 | Famalicao | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonEstoril have won 4 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Estoril 0-0 and beat Estoril 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 6D 10L from the last 23 games (30% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Famalicao have won 3 of their last 11 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Lens 0-0 and drew with Estrela 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 10D 5L from the last 27 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersEstoril
No reported absences
Famalicao
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Estoril have averaged 4.5 corners per match at home; Famalicao 4.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Estoril have generated 1.72 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 30% of them. They put 4.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Estoril player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
