Guimaraes vs Arouca Prediction, Tips & Odds
Guimaraes vs Arouca
Match Preview
The model favours Guimaraes to win against Arouca, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Guimaraes starts the season in a strong position, currently ranked 2nd in the league. Although they have yet to play a match this season, their recent form shows they secured four wins in their last five matches, indicating solid momentum. Their goal-scoring ability and defensive solidity will be key factors as they look to build on this strong foundation. In contrast, Arouca finds themselves in 14th place, also yet to play this season. Their recent form has been less encouraging, with only one win in their last five matches, alongside two draws and two losses. This lack of consistency could prove detrimental as they head into a challenging fixture against a confident Guimaraes side. The model suggests a win probability of 65% for Guimaraes, with a projected score of 2-0. However, a potential caveat for this prediction is the unpredictability of a new season, where teams may take time to find their rhythm. The full methodology used by The Daily Punt Analysis Team incorporates expected goals and actual results throughout the season, providing a comprehensive view of each fixture.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.8% probability.
Guimaraes have been the stronger side, winning 46% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.8% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Guimaraes clean sheets, in line with their 25% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Guimaraes are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Guimaraes vs Arouca| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.88 | 3.50 | 4.00 | 1.91 | 1.85 | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
| 1.83 | 3.54 | 4.10 | 1.90 | 1.87 | 1.76 | 1.93 | |
| 1.85 | 3.60 | 4.00 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.85 | 3.61 | 4.17 | 1.92 | 1.90 | — | — | |
| 1.84 | 3.08 | 3.54 | 1.99 | 1.83 | — | — | |
| 1.85 | 3.40 | 3.90 | — | — | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
| 1.85 | 3.40 | 4.00 | 1.95 | 1.85 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.91 | 3.68 | 4.26 | 1.96 | 1.92 | 1.76 | 1.96 | |
| 1.85 | 3.40 | 3.90 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
Betano | 1.90 | 3.50 | 4.15 | 1.95 | 1.88 | 1.78 | 1.98 |
BetVictor | 1.83 | 3.40 | 3.90 | 1.86 | 1.81 | 1.75 | 1.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 3-3)The head-to-head record between Guimaraes and Arouca stands at 3 wins for Guimaraes, 3 wins for Arouca, and 4 draws across their last 10 encounters. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with a mix of closely contested matches, as seen in the multiple draws and narrow wins. Notably, both teams have achieved heavy wins, but no team has consistently dominated the other. The last victory for Arouca came in March 2023, suggesting a balanced matchup where either side can claim victory on their day.
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Estrela | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | Guimaraes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 |  Estoril | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 |  GIL Vicente | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 |  Rio Ave | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 |  Santa Clara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14 | Arouca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 16 |  Academico Viseu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 17 |  Alverca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 |  Famalicao | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonGuimaraes have won 8 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Nottingham Forest 1-1 and beat Academica 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 3D 10L from the last 24 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Arouca have won 5 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include beat Arouca 0-2 and lost to Santa Clara 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 4D 10L from the last 24 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersGuimaraes
No reported absences
Arouca
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Guimaraes have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; Arouca 4.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Guimaraes have generated 1.23 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 46% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Guimaraes player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
