Maritimo vs Casa Pia Prediction, Tips & Odds
Maritimo vs Casa Pia
Match Preview
The model favours Maritimo to win against Casa Pia, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Maritimo starts the season in 11th place, having not yet played any matches this season. However, their recent form shows two wins from their last five matches, indicating a potential for positive momentum as they transition into the new campaign. Key to their performance will be their ability to convert opportunities, as they look to build on their previous results. On the other hand, Casa Pia is positioned 15th, also with no matches played this season. Their recent form includes two wins and two draws in their last five matches, suggesting they have some competitive edge. The challenge for Casa Pia will be to translate their recent successes into the new season, as they aim to improve on their league standing. The model gives Maritimo a win probability of 55%, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage indicates that Maritimo is favoured to win at around 55%. However, it's important to note that the start of the season can bring unexpected results, and both teams will be keen to establish their footing. For a deeper understanding of the prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis comes from The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which uses an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Maritimo have kept a clean sheet in 33% of matches. Casa Pia average 0.8 goals per game.
Maritimo manage games at home, conceding just 1.25 goals per match. Casa Pia score 0.84 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.3% probability.
Maritimo have been the stronger side, winning 42% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.3% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Maritimo clean sheets, in line with their 33% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Maritimo are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Maritimo vs Casa Pia| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 2.20 | 1.65 | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| 2.14 | 3.14 | 3.50 | 2.23 | 1.63 | 1.90 | 1.78 | |
| 2.20 | 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.25 | 1.60 | 1.87 | 1.87 | |
| 2.25 | 3.21 | 3.53 | 2.32 | 1.65 | — | — | |
| 2.26 | 3.07 | 2.77 | 2.01 | 1.83 | — | — | |
| 2.15 | 3.00 | 3.40 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 2.30 | 1.60 | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| 2.22 | 3.26 | 3.64 | 2.30 | 1.68 | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| 2.17 | 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.02 | 1.67 | 1.79 | 1.88 | |
| 2.20 | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.20 | 1.60 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
Betano | 2.22 | 3.30 | 3.35 | 2.25 | 1.67 | 1.91 | 1.82 |
Superbet | 2.22 | 3.25 | 3.40 | 2.25 | 1.65 | 1.95 | 1.80 |
BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.16 | 1.59 | 1.93 | 1.78 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 3 Meetings (Casa Pia leads 2-0)In the last three matches between Maritimo and Casa Pia, Casa Pia has won twice, and there has been one draw, resulting in a record of 0 wins for Maritimo, 1 draw, and 2 wins for Casa Pia. The scorelines indicate a competitive dynamic, with Casa Pia achieving narrow victories of 2-0 and 2-1 in the league, while their friendly encounter ended in a goalless draw. Maritimo has not secured a win against Casa Pia in these fixtures, highlighting a slight advantage for Casa Pia in their recent meetings.
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sporting CP | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | WD |
| 2 |  FC Porto | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 3 |  GIL Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 4 | Maritimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 5 |  Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 6 |  Estrela | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 17 |  Vitória SC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 | LL |
| 18 |  Alverca | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonMaritimo have won 4 of their last 9 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Casa Pia 1-0 and drew with Estrela Calheta 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 2D 5L from the last 12 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Casa Pia have won 2 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Casa Pia 1-0 and lost to Leixoes 6-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 9D 11L from the last 25 games (20% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersMaritimo
No reported absences
Casa Pia
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
S. Guelho has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by S. Guelho to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Maritimo average 1.1 goals per match at home; Casa Pia 0.8 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Maritimo have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 42% of their matches and averaging 1.1 goals per game. Maritimo player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
