Estudiantes L.P. vs San Lorenzo Prediction, Tips & Odds
Estudiantes L.P. vs San Lorenzo
Match Preview
The model favours Estudiantes L.P. to win against San Lorenzo, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Estudiantes L.P. currently sits at the top of the Liga Profesional standings, having accumulated 31 points from 16 matches. Their season has been characterized by a solid defensive record, conceding only 7 goals, which highlights their ability to control matches. Despite a recent dip in form with two wins and three losses in their last five matches, their strong overall performance this season positions them as clear favourites. San Lorenzo, on the other hand, occupies the seventh position with 22 points from the same number of games. Their season has been less impressive, marked by a balanced goal difference of zero, indicating struggles in both scoring and defending. With only one win in their last five matches, their form is concerning, and they will need to significantly improve to challenge the league leaders effectively. The model output indicates a win probability in favour of Estudiantes L.P. at approximately 60%, with the predicted score being 2-0. However, one caveat is that if San Lorenzo can tighten their defence and exploit any lapses from Estudiantes, they could pose a threat. For a detailed explanation of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which uses an in-house model focusing on expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Estudiantes L.P. have kept a clean sheet in 38% of matches. San Lorenzo average 0.8 goals per game.
Estudiantes L.P. manage games at home, conceding just 0.96 goals per match. San Lorenzo score 0.84 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 18.8% probability.
Estudiantes L.P. have been the stronger side, winning 42% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Estudiantes L.P. win as the most likely scoreline at 18.8% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Estudiantes L.P. clean sheets, in line with their 38% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Estudiantes L.P. are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Estudiantes L.P. vs San Lorenzo| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.09 | 2.93 | 3.92 | 2.49 | 1.42 | 2.15 | 1.61 | |
| 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.90 | 2.63 | 1.47 | — | — | |
| 2.20 | 2.97 | 3.87 | 2.74 | 1.46 | — | — | |
| 2.04 | 2.78 | 3.33 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.10 | 2.88 | 3.75 | — | — | 2.20 | 1.62 | |
| 2.20 | 2.90 | 4.00 | 2.70 | 1.44 | 2.20 | 1.62 | |
| 2.13 | 2.99 | 4.00 | 2.49 | 1.42 | 2.15 | 1.63 | |
Betano | 2.18 | 2.95 | 3.95 | 2.67 | 1.50 | 2.12 | 1.67 |
BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.49 | 1.45 | 2.15 | 1.60 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (San Lorenzo leads 3-1)In the last 10 matches between Estudiantes L.P. and San Lorenzo, the record shows Estudiantes L.P. winning 1 time, drawing 6 times, and San Lorenzo winning 3 times. The scorelines indicate a tendency towards tight contests, with six matches ending in draws and several low-scoring results, including four 0-0 draws. Estudiantes L.P. has struggled to secure victories, with their last win against San Lorenzo occurring in August 2021. Overall, the head-to-head record reflects a competitive rivalry, but with a slight edge for San Lorenzo in terms of wins.
Liga Profesional Argentina Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Independ. Rivadavia | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 34 | LDWWL |
| 1 | Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 31 | DWLWL |
| 2 |  Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 30 | DWWWD |
| 2 |  River Plate | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 29 | WLWWW |
| 3 |  Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 28 | DWDWD |
| 3 |  Argentinos JRS | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 29 | DWLDD |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 22 | WLLDW |
| 14 |  Newells Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 15 | DWDDD |
| 15 |  Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 24 | -19 | 5 | LLLLL |
| 15 |  Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 11 | LDDLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonEstudiantes L.P. have won 14 of their last 27 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include beat Estudiantes L.P. 3-0 and lost to Estudiantes L.P. 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 12D 17L from the last 50 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
San Lorenzo have won 2 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 10 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Defensa Y Justicia 3-0 and lost to Instituto Cordoba 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 15D 11L from the last 37 games (30% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersEstudiantes L.P.
No reported absences
San Lorenzo
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Sebastian Nicolas Martinez has averaged 7.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Estudiantes L.P. have averaged 5.1 corners per match at home; San Lorenzo 3.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Estudiantes L.P. have generated 1.86 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 42% of them. They put 5.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Estudiantes L.P. player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
