Famalicao vs Maritimo Prediction, Tips & Odds
Famalicao vs Maritimo
Match Preview
The model favours Maritimo to win this match against Famalicao, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Maritimo enters the new season with a stronger position, finishing the last season in 11th place. Their recent form, which includes two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, suggests a level of consistency that Famalicao has yet to demonstrate. In contrast, Famalicao finds itself at the bottom of the standings after a challenging last season. Their recent form of one win, three draws, and one loss indicates struggles to secure victories. With no points on the board yet this season, they will need to overcome their previous difficulties to make an impact. According to the model's analysis, Maritimo has a win probability of approximately 55%, while Famalicao's chances stand at around 25%. The projected score reflects Maritimo's recent form and overall standing. However, a potential caveat is that Famalicao may benefit from playing at home, which could provide them with an advantage. For a detailed understanding of the prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 57% of matches. Maritimo average 1.1 goals per game.
Famalicao manage games at home, conceding just 0.82 goals per match. Maritimo score 1.08 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.4% probability.
Famalicao have been the stronger side, winning 43% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Famalicao win as the most likely scoreline at 16.4% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Famalicao clean sheets, in line with their 57% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Famalicao are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Famalicao vs Maritimo| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.76 | 3.55 | 4.55 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| 1.76 | 3.50 | 4.60 | 2.05 | 1.74 | 1.90 | 1.78 | |
| 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.60 | 2.10 | 1.73 | — | — | |
| 1.78 | 3.51 | 4.85 | 2.11 | 1.75 | — | — | |
| 1.80 | 3.20 | 3.88 | 2.05 | 1.79 | — | — | |
| 1.75 | 3.30 | 4.50 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.83 | |
| 1.80 | 3.60 | 4.50 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 1.83 | 3.64 | 4.78 | 2.11 | 1.79 | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| 1.87 | 3.50 | 4.10 | 1.90 | 1.77 | 1.80 | 1.87 | |
| 1.75 | 3.30 | 4.50 | 2.00 | 1.73 | 1.85 | 1.83 | |
Betano | 1.82 | 3.60 | 4.50 | 2.05 | 1.82 | 1.88 | 1.85 |
BetVictor | 1.75 | 3.40 | 4.40 | 1.99 | 1.70 | 1.91 | 1.78 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 8 Meetings (Famalicao leads 4-0)Famalicao hold the edge in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 8 meetings with 4 draws and 0 Maritimo wins. The record points to a tie Famalicao have controlled for years, though the draws show Maritimo have at times kept it tight.
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 2 |  GIL Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 3 | Maritimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 4 |  Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 5 |  Sporting CP | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 6 |  SC Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 9 | Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 18 |  Alverca | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFamalicao have won 9 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Famalicao 2-3 and drew with Famalicao 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 11D 5L from the last 28 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Maritimo have won 1 of their last 3 matches on the road, drawing 0 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Penafiel 1-0 and beat Benfica B 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 2D 5L from the last 12 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFamalicao
No reported absences
Maritimo
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Nogueira has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Famalicao average 1.2 goals per match at home; Maritimo 1.1 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Famalicao have generated 1.54 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 43% of them. They put 4.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Famalicao player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
