FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen Prediction, Tips & Odds
FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen
Match Preview
The model favours FC Basel 1893 to win against FC St. Gallen, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Both teams sit on 10 points in the standings, but Basel's position at 5th compared to St. Gallen's 4th reflects a slight edge in overall performance despite similar records. Basel's goal difference stands at zero, indicating they have been evenly matched in terms of goals scored and conceded, while their recent form shows a win, a draw, and three losses. The key statistic for Basel is their ability to score 12 goals, which matches St. Gallen's output. On the other side, FC St. Gallen has also managed to score 12 goals but has a slightly inferior goal difference of 1. Their recent form is concerning, with four consecutive losses following an initial strong start. This downturn may indicate underlying issues that could be exploited by Basel, particularly in defensive stability. The model suggests a win probability of 55% for Basel, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a caveat to consider is that if St. Gallen can regain their early-season form, they could pose a significant challenge. The full methodology of the prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.1% probability.
FC ST. Gallen have been the stronger side, winning 53% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 12.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. FC ST. Gallen are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.42 | 3.82 | 2.50 | 1.34 | 2.78 | 1.33 | 2.96 | |
| 2.40 | 4.00 | 2.40 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 1.36 | 3.10 | |
| 2.48 | 4.11 | 2.59 | 1.42 | 2.99 | — | — | |
| 2.29 | 3.56 | 2.43 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.45 | 3.75 | 2.45 | — | — | 1.36 | 2.90 | |
| 2.40 | 4.00 | 2.50 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.36 | 3.00 | |
| 2.42 | 3.82 | 2.50 | 1.34 | 2.78 | 1.33 | 3.02 | |
Betano | 2.45 | 3.85 | 2.50 | 1.40 | 2.80 | 1.37 | 2.87 |
BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.75 | 2.45 | 1.36 | 2.90 | 1.30 | 3.10 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (FC ST. Gallen leads 4-3)The head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen stands at 3 wins for Basel, 3 draws, and 4 wins for St. Gallen over the last 10 matches. This indicates a competitive rivalry, with St. Gallen having a slight edge. The scorelines suggest a mix of tight encounters and some clear victories, particularly St. Gallen's 3-0 win. Notably, both teams have had several low-scoring draws, with three matches ending in 0-0 or 1-1. The last time FC Basel won against St. Gallen was in 2024, showing that St. Gallen has been more successful in recent meetings.
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Lugano | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 18 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  BSC Young Boys | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 26 | 14 | 12 | 15 | DWDWD |
| 3 |  FC Sion | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 12 | WWLWW |
| 4 | FC ST. Gallen | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 10 | WLLDW |
| 5 | FC Basel 1893 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 10 | LLDWW |
| 6 |  FC Luzern | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 9 | DWDWD |
| 10 |  Lausanne | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 6 | LDLLD |
| 11 |  Grasshoppers | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 5 | DWLLL |
| 12 |  Servette FC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 4 | LLDWL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFC Basel 1893 have won 4 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 10. Their recent home fixtures include lost to FC Lugano 1-3 and lost to FC Sion 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 5D 17L from the last 32 games (31% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
FC ST. Gallen have won 11 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include beat FC ST. Gallen 0-2 and lost to Grasshoppers 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 10D 7L from the last 36 games (53% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFC Basel 1893
No reported absences
FC ST. Gallen
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Sven Wolfensberger has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Sven Wolfensberger to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
FC Basel 1893 have averaged 5.2 corners per match at home; FC ST. Gallen 6.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
FC Basel 1893 have generated 1.35 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 31% of them. They put 4.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. FC Basel 1893 player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
