FC Vaduz vs FC Thun Prediction, Tips & Odds
FC Vaduz vs FC Thun
Match Preview
The model favours FC Vaduz to win against FC Thun, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. FC Vaduz currently sits in 9th place in the Super League with 6 points from 7 matches. Their season has been challenging, with a record of 2 wins and 5 losses. However, they have shown some attacking promise, scoring 16 goals, albeit with a slightly negative goal difference of -1. Their recent form includes two wins in their last five matches, indicating some potential for improvement. On the other hand, FC Thun is positioned 7th with 7 points from 6 matches, having won 2, drawn 1, and lost 3. Their ability to find the net has been limited, scoring just 11 goals while conceding 17, leading to a goal difference of -6. Their recent form has been less than ideal, with only one win in their last five matches, which may impact their confidence going into this fixture. The model output suggests a win probability of around 45% for FC Vaduz, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market stat to note is that FC Vaduz has a 55% chance of scoring at least two goals in this match. A potential caveat is that if FC Thun manages to tighten their defense, they could disrupt Vaduz's attacking rhythm. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as the analysis is based on an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 10.8% probability.
FC Vaduz have been the stronger side, winning 60% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 10.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. FC Vaduz are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
FC Vaduz vs FC Thun| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.24 | 4.10 | 2.61 | 1.26 | 3.20 | 1.28 | 3.26 | |
| 2.25 | 4.00 | 2.63 | 1.30 | 3.40 | 1.29 | 3.50 | |
| 2.27 | 4.43 | 2.73 | 1.34 | 3.41 | — | — | |
| 2.29 | 3.78 | 2.45 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.20 | 4.00 | 2.60 | — | — | 1.30 | 3.20 | |
| 2.25 | 4.10 | 2.62 | 1.33 | 3.40 | 1.33 | 3.25 | |
| 2.24 | 4.10 | 2.61 | 1.26 | 3.20 | 1.28 | 3.34 | |
Betano | 2.25 | 4.05 | 2.65 | 1.33 | 3.15 | 1.32 | 3.10 |
BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.90 | 2.60 | 1.29 | 3.30 | 1.29 | 3.30 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (FC Thun leads 5-2)In the last 10 matches between FC Vaduz and FC Thun, FC Thun has won 5 times, FC Vaduz has won 2 times, and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive series, with several high-scoring matches, including two games that ended in a 3-3 draw. While Thun has had the upper hand overall, Vaduz managed to secure two victories, one of which was a 2-0 win. The results show that both teams can score, but Thun's victories have often been more decisive, including a notable 6-3 win. Vaduz's last win came in October 2024, highlighting a gap since their last triumph in this matchup.
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Lugano | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 18 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  BSC Young Boys | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 26 | 14 | 12 | 15 | DWDWD |
| 3 |  FC Sion | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 12 | WWLWW |
| 4 |  FC ST. Gallen | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 10 | WLLDW |
| 5 |  FC Basel 1893 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 10 | LLDWW |
| 6 |  FC Luzern | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 9 | DWDWD |
| 7 | FC Thun | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 7 | LDWLL |
| 9 | FC Vaduz | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 6 | WLWLL |
| 10 |  Lausanne | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 6 | LDLLD |
| 11 |  Grasshoppers | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 5 | DWLLL |
| 12 |  Servette FC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 4 | LLDWL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFC Vaduz have won 6 of their last 9 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Lausanne 3-1 and beat Grasshoppers 5-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 1D 7L from the last 20 games (60% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
FC Thun have won 8 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to FC Thun 3-2 and beat FC ST. Gallen 3-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 6D 11L from the last 33 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFC Vaduz
No reported absences
FC Thun
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Zrinko Prskalo has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Zrinko Prskalo to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
FC Vaduz have averaged 4.3 corners per match at home; FC Thun 4.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
FC Vaduz have generated 1.55 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 60% of them. They put 5.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. FC Vaduz player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.