FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun Prediction, Tips & Odds
FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun
Match Preview
The model favours FC Basel 1893 to win this match against FC Thun, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. FC Basel is currently positioned second in the league standings, having started their season with a solid win. With one game played, they have scored one goal and conceded none, indicating a strong defensive performance. Their recent form shows some promise, with two wins in their last five matches, suggesting they are building momentum. On the other hand, FC Thun is sitting at the top of the table, also with one win from their opening match. They have shown a potent attacking threat, scoring three goals while conceding one, which highlights their offensive capabilities. However, their recent form has been less consistent, with two wins and three draws in their last five matches. This mixed performance could be a concern as they face a strong opponent like Basel. According to the model, FC Basel has a win probability of approximately 60%, while Thun sits around 25%, and there is a 15% chance for a draw. One caveat to consider is that if Thun's attack finds its rhythm early, they could disrupt Basel's plans and potentially secure a favorable outcome. The full method, which considers expected goals and actual results, can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.4% probability.
FC Basel 1893 have been the stronger side, winning 36% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 FC Basel 1893 win as the most likely scoreline at 12.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. FC Basel 1893 are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.75 | 4.10 | 3.90 | 1.45 | 2.70 | 1.42 | 2.60 | |
| 1.77 | 4.05 | 3.85 | 1.37 | 2.68 | 1.41 | 2.64 | |
| 1.75 | 4.20 | 3.70 | 1.36 | 2.88 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 1.81 | 4.35 | 3.98 | 1.43 | 2.91 | — | — | |
| 1.78 | 3.78 | 3.57 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.80 | 3.80 | 3.60 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.70 | |
| 1.75 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 1.79 | 4.05 | 3.82 | 1.37 | 2.68 | 1.41 | 2.69 | |
| 1.80 | 3.95 | 3.75 | 1.40 | 2.63 | 1.40 | 2.63 | |
| 1.80 | 3.80 | 3.60 | 1.40 | 2.70 | 1.40 | 2.70 | |
Betano | 1.83 | 4.00 | 3.65 | 1.44 | 2.67 | 1.42 | 2.65 |
Superbet | 1.80 | 4.00 | 3.80 | 1.43 | 2.70 | 1.44 | 2.60 |
BetVictor | 1.73 | 4.00 | 3.75 | 1.40 | 2.75 | 1.40 | 2.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (FC Basel 1893 leads 5-4)The head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and FC Thun stands at 5 wins for Basel, 4 wins for Thun, and 1 draw over the last 10 matches. This indicates a competitive rivalry, with both teams having had success against each other. The scorelines show a mix of narrow victories and a few heavier wins, such as Basel's 3-1 triumphs and Thun's 3-1 response. Notably, the most recent matches suggest a balance, with Thun winning two out of the last three encounters, while Basel has also secured vital wins, highlighting the closely contested nature of their meetings.
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Lugano | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  BSC Young Boys | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 7 | DWW |
| 3 |  FC ST. Gallen | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 7 | DWW |
| 4 |  FC Sion | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 6 | WWL |
| 5 | FC Basel 1893 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 6 | WLW |
| 6 |  Lausanne | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | DWD |
| 9 | FC Thun | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 | LLW |
| 10 |  Grasshoppers | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 | LLD |
| 11 |  FC Luzern | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 | DLL |
| 12 |  FC Vaduz | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFC Basel 1893 have won 5 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include beat FC Basel 1893 4-2 and lost to FC Basel 1893 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 4D 14L from the last 28 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
FC Thun have won 7 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include beat FC Thun 0-6 and lost to Vikingur Reykjavik 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 4D 11L from the last 30 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedFC Basel 18934-3-3Confirmed
FC Thun4-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersFC Basel 1893
No reported absences
FC Thun
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
FC Basel 1893 have averaged 5.1 corners per match at home; FC Thun 5.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
FC Basel 1893 have generated 1.42 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 36% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. FC Basel 1893 player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
