FC Santa Coloma vs Penybont Prediction, Tips & Odds
FC Santa Coloma vs Penybont
Match Preview
The model favours FC Santa Coloma to win this match against Penybont, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. FC Santa Coloma has experienced a mixed season so far, with two wins and three losses in their last five matches. This fluctuating form indicates some inconsistency, but their recent victory may provide a boost in confidence going into this fixture. Penybont, on the other hand, has shown slightly better form with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. Their ability to secure points in tough situations suggests they are competitive, but they will need to improve upon their recent performances if they hope to challenge for a win in this match. The model output indicates that FC Santa Coloma has a higher probability of winning this match. However, the caveat lies in their inconsistency, as they could easily falter against a determined Penybont side. The full method used by The Daily Punt Analysis Team incorporates expected goals and actual results across the season to provide this prediction.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
FC Santa Coloma have kept a clean sheet in 67% of matches. Penybont average 0.7 goals per game.
FC Santa Coloma manage games at home, conceding just 0.67 goals per match. Penybont score 0.70 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 19.5% probability.
FC Santa Coloma have been the stronger side, winning 67% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 FC Santa Coloma win as the most likely scoreline at 19.5% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature FC Santa Coloma clean sheets, in line with their 67% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. FC Santa Coloma are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
FC Santa Coloma vs Penybont| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.62 | 3.45 | 5.10 | 2.20 | 1.62 | 2.10 | 1.60 | |
| 1.61 | 3.54 | 5.70 | 2.24 | 1.62 | 2.16 | 1.60 | |
| 1.57 | 3.60 | 5.00 | 2.25 | 1.57 | 2.30 | 1.57 | |
| 1.60 | 3.34 | 5.34 | 2.26 | 1.57 | — | — | |
| 1.58 | 3.24 | 4.46 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.62 | 3.50 | 5.50 | — | — | 2.15 | 1.62 | |
| 1.60 | 3.50 | 5.00 | 2.08 | 1.73 | 2.20 | 1.62 | |
| 1.63 | 3.54 | 5.64 | 2.24 | 1.62 | 2.16 | 1.62 | |
| 1.63 | 3.65 | 5.40 | 2.02 | 1.68 | 1.98 | 1.71 | |
Betano | 1.65 | 3.50 | 5.30 | 2.15 | 1.65 | 2.07 | 1.67 |
Superbet | 1.60 | 3.65 | 5.45 | 2.20 | 1.60 | 2.22 | 1.59 |
BetVictor | 1.62 | 3.50 | 5.75 | 2.17 | 1.59 | 2.15 | 1.60 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 2 Meetings (FC Santa Coloma leads 1-0)The head-to-head record between FC Santa Coloma and Penybont stands at 1 win for FC Santa Coloma, 1 draw, and 0 wins for Penybont. The scorelines indicate a competitive but slightly favorable situation for FC Santa Coloma, with one match ending in a 2-0 victory and the other as a 1-1 draw. This suggests that while the contests have been relatively close, FC Santa Coloma has managed to secure a win without conceding in their victory. Penybont has yet to secure a win against FC Santa Coloma in their two encounters.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonFC Santa Coloma have won 4 of their last 6 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Penybont 3-0 and lost to Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 1D 3L from the last 12 games (67% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Penybont have won 1 of their last 5 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include beat Trethomas Bluebirds 0-3 and drew with Colwyn Bay 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 2W 2D 6L from the last 10 games (20% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFC Santa Coloma
No reported absences
Penybont
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Stofringshaug has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by M. Stofringshaug to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
FC Santa Coloma average 1.7 goals per match at home; Penybont 0.7 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
FC Santa Coloma have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 67% of their matches and averaging 1.7 goals per game. FC Santa Coloma player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
