Flora Tallinn vs Vaprus Prediction, Tips & Odds
Flora Tallinn vs Vaprus
Match Preview
The model favours Flora Tallinn to win against Vaprus, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Flora Tallinn currently holds second place in the Meistriliiga standings, having accumulated 49 points from 27 matches with a record of 16 wins, 1 draw, and 10 losses. Their goal-scoring prowess is evident, with 53 goals scored this season, resulting in a positive goal difference of 18. Recent form shows they have secured three wins in their last five matches, indicating a strong competitive edge as they aim for a top position. On the other hand, Vaprus sits in seventh place with 31 points from 25 matches, marking a less successful campaign characterized by 9 wins, 4 draws, and 12 losses. Their defensive struggles are highlighted by the 46 goals conceded, contributing to a negative goal difference of -12. In their last five matches, Vaprus has only managed one win, which reflects ongoing challenges in consistency and performance. According to the model's analysis, Flora Tallinn has a high win probability, while Vaprus faces an uphill battle. However, it's important to note that unexpected events, such as injuries or red cards, could influence the match outcome. For a detailed explanation of our prediction method, which utilizes expected goals and actual results across the season, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team is dedicated to providing data-driven insights for every match.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.1% probability.
Flora Tallinn have been the stronger side, winning 61% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Flora Tallinn win as the most likely scoreline at 13.1% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Flora Tallinn clean sheets, in line with their 37% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Flora Tallinn are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Flora Tallinn vs Vaprus| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.39 | 4.50 | 5.65 | 1.33 | 2.83 | 1.47 | 2.42 | |
| 1.44 | 4.60 | 5.00 | 1.33 | 3.00 | 1.44 | 2.63 | |
| 1.44 | 4.78 | 5.77 | 1.45 | 2.64 | — | — | |
| 1.41 | 4.26 | 4.84 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.44 | 4.20 | 5.00 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 1.42 | 4.33 | 5.50 | 1.36 | 3.00 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.40 | 4.50 | 5.89 | 1.33 | 2.83 | 1.47 | 2.47 | |
Betano | 1.45 | 4.40 | 5.10 | — | — | — | — |
BetVictor | 1.36 | 4.00 | 4.60 | 1.25 | 2.45 | 1.36 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Flora Tallinn leads 7-2)In the last 10 matches between Flora Tallinn and Vaprus, Flora Tallinn has won 7 times, Vaprus has won 2 times, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a strong advantage for Flora Tallinn, with several heavy victories, including three matches ending 3-0 in their favor. The matches have generally been low-scoring, with only one game featuring more than two goals. Vaprus's last victory against Flora Tallinn came in May 2024, highlighting their struggles in this fixture. Overall, the head-to-head record suggests a clear dominance by Flora Tallinn.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 25 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 66 | 20 | 46 | 62 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Flora Tallinn | 27 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 53 | 35 | 18 | 49 | DWWLL |
| 3 |  Kalju Nomme | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 47 | 26 | 21 | 44 | LLLLW |
| 4 |  Paide | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 40 | 33 | 7 | 42 | LWWDW |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 25 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 41 | WLWWW |
| 6 |  Laagri | 26 | 10 | 1 | 15 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 31 | LWWLL |
| 7 | Vaprus | 25 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 34 | 46 | -12 | 31 | WDLLD |
| 8 |  Nõmme United | 27 | 9 | 1 | 17 | 44 | 62 | -18 | 28 | WLLLL |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 30 | 42 | -12 | 28 | WDLWW |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 27 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 21 | 62 | -41 | 18 | DLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFlora Tallinn have won 14 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include beat Kalju Nomme 2-1 and beat Tammeka 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 25W 2D 14L from the last 41 games (61% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Vaprus have won 6 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 10. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Nõmme United 3-2 and drew with Kuressaare 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 5D 18L from the last 37 games (38% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFlora Tallinn
No reported absences
Vaprus
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
K. Koppel has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by K. Koppel to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Flora Tallinn average 1.9 goals per match at home; Vaprus 1.8 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Flora Tallinn have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 61% of their matches and averaging 1.9 goals per game. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Flora Tallinn player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.