Trans Narva vs FC Levadia Tallinn Prediction, Tips & Odds
Trans Narva vs FC Levadia Tallinn
Match Preview
The model favours FC Levadia Tallinn to win against Trans Narva, projecting a scoreline of 3-0. FC Levadia Tallinn currently sits at the top of the Meistriliiga standings, demonstrating exceptional form throughout the season with 19 wins, 5 draws, and only 1 loss from 25 matches. They have scored 66 goals while conceding just 20, giving them a remarkable goal difference of +46. This dominant performance is highlighted by their recent five-match winning streak, showcasing their attacking prowess and defensive stability. In contrast, Trans Narva is struggling at the bottom of the table, positioned 10th with only 5 wins and a total of 18 points from 27 matches. Their form has been inconsistent, with just 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last five outings. Trans Narva has a goal difference of -41, having scored only 21 goals while conceding 62. This stark disparity in performance could pose significant challenges for them in this matchup. The model indicates a win probability of around 75% for FC Levadia Tallinn, with a projected score of 3-0. One potential caveat is that if Trans Narva can find a way to disrupt Levadia's rhythm or exploit any defensive lapses, they could make the match more competitive than anticipated. The full methodology used in this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which employs an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.9% probability.
FC Levadia Tallinn have been the stronger side, winning 68% of their matches.
Our model projects a 0-2 FC Levadia Tallinn win as the most likely scoreline at 16.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. FC Levadia Tallinn are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Trans Narva vs FC Levadia Tallinn| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 10.50 | 6.20 | 1.16 | 1.44 | 2.52 | 1.91 | 1.76 | |
| 10.00 | 6.00 | 1.18 | 1.44 | 2.60 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 9.68 | 6.68 | 1.21 | 1.46 | 2.58 | — | — | |
| 7.62 | 5.13 | 1.22 | — | — | — | — | |
| 10.00 | 5.80 | 1.20 | — | — | 1.91 | 1.80 | |
| 9.50 | 6.25 | 1.25 | 1.44 | 2.62 | 1.91 | 1.80 | |
| 11.00 | 6.20 | 1.17 | 1.44 | 2.52 | 1.91 | 1.78 | |
Betano | 8.75 | 5.30 | 1.24 | 1.52 | 2.22 | — | — |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (FC Levadia Tallinn leads 7-1)In the last 10 matches between Trans Narva and FC Levadia Tallinn, FC Levadia Tallinn has won 7 times, with Trans Narva securing only 1 victory and 2 matches ending in draws. This record indicates a strong advantage for FC Levadia Tallinn, highlighted by several decisive wins, including a 4-0 victory and multiple matches where they scored two or more goals. Trans Narva's lone victory came in a friendly match, suggesting that competitive fixtures have been more challenging for them. The recent trend shows a clear dominance by FC Levadia Tallinn, particularly in the league encounters.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 25 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 66 | 20 | 46 | 62 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 27 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 53 | 35 | 18 | 49 | DWWLL |
| 3 |  Kalju Nomme | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 47 | 26 | 21 | 44 | LLLLW |
| 4 |  Paide | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 40 | 33 | 7 | 42 | LWWDW |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 25 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 41 | WLWWW |
| 6 |  Laagri | 26 | 10 | 1 | 15 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 31 | LWWLL |
| 8 |  Nõmme United | 27 | 9 | 1 | 17 | 44 | 62 | -18 | 28 | WLLLL |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 30 | 42 | -12 | 28 | WDLWW |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 27 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 21 | 62 | -41 | 18 | DLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonTrans Narva have won 8 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 11. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Trans Narva 0-2 and beat Trans Narva 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 6D 23L from the last 39 games (26% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
FC Levadia Tallinn have won 15 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include beat FC Levadia Tallinn 0-2 and beat Kalju Nomme 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 25W 7D 5L from the last 37 games (68% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersTrans Narva
No reported absences
FC Levadia Tallinn
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
K. Tohver has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by K. Tohver to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Trans Narva average 1.4 goals per match at home; FC Levadia Tallinn 2.6 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
FC Levadia Tallinn have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 68% of their matches and averaging 2.6 goals per game. FC Levadia Tallinn player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.