Tammeka vs Kalju Nomme Prediction, Tips & Odds
Tammeka vs Kalju Nomme
Match Preview
The model favours Tammeka to win against Kalju Nomme, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Tammeka currently sits in fifth place in the Meistriliiga standings, having accumulated 41 points from 25 matches with a record of 13 wins, 2 draws, and 10 losses. Their recent form demonstrates a strong resurgence, winning four of their last five matches, which has significantly bolstered their confidence. Despite a slightly negative goal difference of -2, their ability to score, with 33 goals, indicates a potent attack. On the other hand, Kalju Nomme occupies third place with 44 points from 27 matches, having secured 13 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses. However, their recent performance has been concerning, with just one win in their last five matches, including four consecutive losses. This decline in form has affected their goal-scoring ability, as they have conceded 26 goals while scoring 47, reflecting a much stronger offensive record compared to Tammeka. The model indicates that Tammeka has a win probability of approximately 55%, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage suggests that Tammeka is favoured to win at home. However, a potential caveat is that if Kalju Nomme can regain their form and exploit any defensive weaknesses, they could turn the tide. The full methodology used for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.3% probability.
Tammeka have been the stronger side, winning 51% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Tammeka are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Tammeka vs Kalju Nomme| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.64 | 3.58 | 1.77 | 1.56 | 2.22 | 1.52 | 2.30 | |
| 3.40 | 3.75 | 1.85 | 1.57 | 2.25 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 3.51 | 3.73 | 1.90 | 1.58 | 2.28 | — | — | |
| 3.60 | 3.40 | 1.85 | — | — | 1.53 | 2.30 | |
| 3.30 | 3.60 | 1.83 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 3.72 | 3.58 | 1.79 | 1.56 | 2.22 | 1.52 | 2.34 | |
Betano | 3.70 | 3.60 | 1.78 | 1.53 | 2.20 | — | — |
BetVictor | 3.13 | 3.25 | 1.75 | 1.46 | 1.94 | 1.40 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Kalju Nomme leads 7-1)In the last 10 matches between Tammeka and Kalju Nomme, Kalju Nomme has won 7 times, Tammeka has won once, and there have been 2 draws. This record indicates a significant advantage for Kalju Nomme, particularly evident in their ability to secure narrow victories, as seen in five matches decided by a single goal. Tammeka's sole win came in a close 2-1 match, while Kalju Nomme's wins include a heavier 4-2 victory, suggesting they can score multiple goals against Tammeka. The draw frequency is relatively low, indicating a tendency for decisive results rather than stalemates.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 25 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 66 | 20 | 46 | 62 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 27 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 53 | 35 | 18 | 49 | DWWLL |
| 3 | Kalju Nomme | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 47 | 26 | 21 | 44 | LLLLW |
| 4 |  Paide | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 40 | 33 | 7 | 42 | LWWDW |
| 5 | Tammeka | 25 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 41 | WLWWW |
| 6 |  Laagri | 26 | 10 | 1 | 15 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 31 | LWWLL |
| 8 |  Nõmme United | 27 | 9 | 1 | 17 | 44 | 62 | -18 | 28 | WLLLL |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 30 | 42 | -12 | 28 | WDLWW |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 27 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 21 | 62 | -41 | 18 | DLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonTammeka have won 10 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Tammeka 3-1 and beat Tammeka 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 3D 14L from the last 35 games (51% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Kalju Nomme have won 11 of their last 21 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Kalju Nomme 2-1 and lost to Trans Narva 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 9D 12L from the last 39 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersTammeka
No reported absences
Kalju Nomme
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. Jaanovits has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by J. Jaanovits to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Tammeka average 1.9 goals per match at home; Kalju Nomme 2.0 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Tammeka have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 51% of their matches and averaging 1.9 goals per game. Tammeka player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
