Grazer AK vs Austria Lustenau Prediction, Tips & Odds
Grazer AK vs Austria Lustenau
Match Preview
The model favours Grazer AK to win this match against Austria Lustenau, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Grazer AK has had a mixed season so far, with two wins and three losses in their last five matches. Despite the inconsistency, they will look to leverage their home advantage at Merkur-Arena, where they have historically performed better. On the other hand, Austria Lustenau has also struggled recently, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five outings. Their form indicates a lack of consistency, which could hinder their chances away from home. They will need to find a way to improve their results to compete effectively against Grazer AK. According to the model, Grazer AK has a win probability of around 55%, while Austria Lustenau's chances sit at approximately 25%. The model output suggests a close contest, but Grazer AK's home form may give them the edge. One caveat to consider is that if Austria Lustenau can find their scoring touch early, it could disrupt Grazer AK's plans. For a detailed explanation of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilizes an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Grazer AK manage games at home, conceding just 1.28 goals per match. Austria Lustenau score 1.00 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.3% probability.
Grazer AK have been the stronger side, winning 41% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.3% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Grazer AK clean sheets, in line with their 24% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Grazer AK are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Grazer AK vs Austria Lustenau| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.80 | 1.95 | 1.83 | 1.73 | 1.95 | |
| 1.97 | 3.48 | 3.60 | 1.93 | 1.84 | 1.75 | 1.94 | |
| 1.91 | 3.50 | 3.80 | 1.90 | 1.87 | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| 2.01 | 3.62 | 3.84 | 1.99 | 1.89 | — | — | |
| 2.04 | 3.08 | 3.18 | 2.01 | 1.83 | — | — | |
| 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.50 | — | — | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
| 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.75 | 1.95 | 1.85 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.99 | 3.48 | 3.60 | 1.93 | 1.84 | 1.75 | 1.97 | |
| 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.40 | 1.88 | 1.79 | 1.71 | 1.94 | |
| 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.50 | 1.95 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
Betano | 2.05 | 3.35 | 3.55 | 1.95 | 1.82 | 1.75 | 1.95 |
Superbet | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.65 | 1.92 | 1.78 | 1.76 | 1.95 |
BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.80 | 1.89 | 1.78 | 1.75 | 1.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 6 Meetings (evenly matched 2-2)The head-to-head record between Grazer AK and Austria Lustenau stands at 2 wins for each team, with 2 draws in their last 6 matches. This indicates a balanced rivalry, with no side having a clear edge. The scorelines reflect a mix of tight contests and a few decisive victories, such as Grazer AK's 2-0 win and Austria Lustenau's 3-1 triumph. Notably, three of the matches ended in draws or were decided by a single goal, suggesting competitive encounters. The most recent win for either side was in July 2021, highlighting a relatively even playing field in their recent history.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rapid Vienna | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Lask Linz | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 7 | WDW |
| 4 |  Sturm Graz | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | WWD |
| 5 |  Wolfsberger AC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | LDW |
| 6 | Austria Lustenau | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | WLD |
| 9 | Grazer AK | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 3 | LWL |
| 10 |  Ried | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 | LLD |
| 11 |  WSG Wattens | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 | LLD |
| 12 |  TSV Hartberg | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonGrazer AK have won 9 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Austria Lustenau 2-1 and lost to Dynamo Dresden 0-5.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 7D 10L from the last 29 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Austria Lustenau have won 1 of their last 7 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Austria Lustenau 2-1 and beat Krems / Rehberg 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 4D 4L from the last 13 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedGrazer AK3-4-1-2Confirmed
Austria Lustenau4-1-4-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersGrazer AK
No reported absences
Austria Lustenau
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
S. Barmaksiz has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by S. Barmaksiz to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Grazer AK average 1.7 goals per match at home; Austria Lustenau 1.0 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Grazer AK have generated 0.95 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 41% of them. They put 1.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Grazer AK player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
