Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz Prediction, Tips & Odds
Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz
Match Preview
The model favours Rapid Vienna to win against Sturm Graz, projecting a scoreline of 3-1. Rapid Vienna currently sits at the top of the Bundesliga standings, having won all three of their matches this season. Their impressive goal difference of +10, with 11 goals scored and just 1 conceded, highlights their offensive strength and defensive solidity. With five consecutive wins in all competitions, they are clearly in excellent form. On the other hand, Sturm Graz is positioned fourth in the league, having played three matches with two wins and one draw. While they have managed to keep a solid defensive record, conceding only 1 goal, their scoring output is less impressive, with just 4 goals to their name. Their recent form shows inconsistency, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, which could hinder their chances against a dominant Rapid Vienna side. The model output indicates a win probability of around 65% for Rapid Vienna. However, a potential caveat is Sturm Graz's strong defensive record, which could make scoring more difficult than anticipated. For a full breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.4% probability.
Rapid Vienna have been the stronger side, winning 56% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 1 bookmaker. Rapid Vienna are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.63 | 3.50 | 2.40 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.65 | 3.50 | 2.50 | 1.73 | 2.00 | 1.60 | 2.27 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Sturm Graz leads 5-4)In the last 10 matches between Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz, Sturm Graz holds a slight edge with 5 wins compared to Rapid Vienna's 4 victories and 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches being closely contested; however, Sturm Graz has secured some decisive wins, including a 2-0 and a 3-1 victory. The matches have featured a mix of narrow and more comfortable outcomes, suggesting a balance in competitiveness. Rapid Vienna has not won in their last five encounters, which may highlight a recent struggle against Sturm Graz.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Lask Linz | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 7 | WDW |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | WWD |
| 5 |  Wolfsberger AC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | LDW |
| 6 |  Austria Lustenau | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | WLD |
| 10 |  Ried | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 | LLD |
| 11 |  WSG Wattens | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 | LLD |
| 12 |  TSV Hartberg | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonRapid Vienna have won 14 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Grazer AK 8-0 and beat Paide 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 6D 9L from the last 34 games (56% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Sturm Graz have won 6 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include beat TSV Hartberg 0-2 and lost to Fenerbahçe 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 12D 6L from the last 34 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersRapid Vienna
No reported absences
Sturm Graz
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Rapid Vienna have averaged 4.8 corners per match at home; Sturm Graz 6.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Rapid Vienna have generated 1.55 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 56% of them. They put 5.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Rapid Vienna player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
