Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Queretaro Prediction, Tips & Odds
Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Queretaro
Match Preview
The model favours Guadalajara Chivas to win this match against Club Queretaro, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Chivas currently sit in second place in the Liga MX standings, having played seven matches this season. Their form has been impressive, with four wins, two draws, and only one loss, accumulating 14 points. They have scored 12 goals while conceding just 6, leading to a positive goal difference of 6. This season, their offensive and defensive balance has been a critical factor in their success. On the other hand, Club Queretaro, positioned fourth, has also had a solid season, with 13 points from their seven matches. They have recorded four wins, one draw, and two losses, scoring 10 goals and conceding 7, resulting in a goal difference of 3. Queretaro's recent form shows two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, indicating they are competitive but may struggle to keep pace with the top teams consistently. The model output suggests a win probability of around 55% for Chivas, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage to note is the likelihood of Chivas winning at home. However, a potential caveat is that if Queretaro can exploit any defensive lapses from Chivas, they could cause an upset. The full method used in this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, relying on expected goals and actual results throughout the season, as analysed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.9% probability.
Guadalajara Chivas have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Guadalajara Chivas win as the most likely scoreline at 13.9% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Guadalajara Chivas clean sheets, in line with their 44% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Guadalajara Chivas are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Guadalajara Chivas vs Club Queretaro| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.35 | 4.90 | 7.10 | 1.48 | 2.33 | 1.73 | 1.97 | |
| 1.33 | 5.00 | 7.00 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.38 | 5.12 | 7.15 | 1.55 | 2.46 | — | — | |
| 1.36 | 4.50 | 6.00 | — | — | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
| 1.38 | 4.75 | 7.00 | 1.53 | 2.40 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.36 | 4.90 | 7.16 | 1.48 | 2.33 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
Betano | 1.40 | 4.90 | 7.50 | 1.57 | 2.50 | 1.75 | 2.00 |
BetVictor | 1.36 | 4.80 | 7.00 | 1.52 | 2.31 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Guadalajara Chivas leads 4-1)In the last 10 matches between Guadalajara Chivas and Club Queretaro, Guadalajara Chivas has won 4 times, there have been 4 draws, and Club Queretaro has won just once. The scorelines indicate a generally competitive series, with several matches ending in draws and a mix of narrow victories. Notably, Chivas has secured several 2-0 and 2-1 wins, suggesting they have often edged out Queretaro, particularly in their recent encounters. The last win for Queretaro came in October 2025, highlighting a significant gap in their success against Chivas in this matchup.
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guadalajara Chivas | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 17 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Toluca | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 16 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Club America | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 16 | LWWWW |
| 4 |  Cruz Azul | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 15 | WWWLL |
| 5 | Club Queretaro | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 13 | WWLDW |
| 6 |  Club Tijuana | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 13 | LWLWD |
| 16 |  Atletico San Luis | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 6 | LWDLD |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 | WLDLL |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 23 | -19 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonGuadalajara Chivas have won 8 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Guadalajara Chivas 0-1 and beat Guadalajara Chivas 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 9D 7L from the last 32 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Club Queretaro have won 6 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat Club Queretaro 0-1 and beat Atlas 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 10D 8L from the last 28 games (36% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersGuadalajara Chivas
No reported absences
Club Queretaro
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Guadalajara Chivas have averaged 8.0 corners per match at home; Club Queretaro 4.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Guadalajara Chivas have generated 1.57 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 6.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Guadalajara Chivas player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
