Nashville SC vs Toronto FC Prediction, Tips & Odds
Nashville SC vs Toronto FC
Match Preview
The model favours Nashville SC to win against Toronto FC, projecting a scoreline of 3-1. Nashville is currently at the top of the league standings, having accumulated 54 points from 25 matches, with a strong record of 16 wins, 6 draws, and just 3 losses. Their impressive goal difference of +29, stemming from 50 goals scored and only 21 conceded, highlights their offensive strength and defensive solidity. Despite a mixed recent form of two wins, two draws, and one loss, they remain a formidable side. On the other hand, Toronto FC finds itself in 12th place with 29 points from the same number of matches. Their season has been challenging, with only 6 wins, 11 draws, and 8 losses to show for their efforts. They have struggled defensively, conceding 46 goals which contributes to a negative goal difference of -8. While their recent form shows some improvement with two wins and two draws in the last five matches, it is clear that they have not been able to maintain consistent performances throughout the season. The model assigns Nashville a high probability of winning this match, reflecting their dominant position in the standings. However, a potential caveat is the possibility of complacency, as they may underestimate a Toronto side that is desperate for points. For a detailed understanding of the prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team outlines their in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.3% probability.
Nashville SC have been the stronger side, winning 51% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Nashville SC win as the most likely scoreline at 12.3% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Nashville SC clean sheets, in line with their 43% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Nashville SC are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Nashville SC vs Toronto FC| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.37 | 4.80 | 7.30 | 1.40 | 2.56 | 1.62 | 2.13 | |
| 1.33 | 5.00 | 7.00 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.40 | 4.50 | 6.50 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.15 | |
| 1.38 | 4.75 | 7.00 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
Betano | 1.40 | 4.90 | 7.40 | 1.50 | 2.70 | 1.65 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Nashville SC leads 4-2)In the last 10 matches between Nashville SC and Toronto FC, Nashville has won 4 times, Toronto has won 2, and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several closely contested matches; four games ended with narrow margins of victory, including a 1-0 win and three matches decided by just one goal. The presence of three draws highlights the balanced nature of these fixtures. Notably, Toronto's last victory against Nashville came in 2021, suggesting a trend of Nashville's stronger recent performance in this matchup.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 25 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 50 | 21 | 29 | 54 | DLDWW |
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 53 | 23 | 30 | 46 | LWLWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 61 | 46 | 15 | 45 | DDDWL |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 43 | LWDDL |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 43 | WWWDL |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 41 | 31 | 10 | 43 | WWLWD |
| 12 | Toronto FC | 25 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 38 | 46 | -8 | 29 | LWDDW |
| 14 |  Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 28 | DDDDL |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 31 | 51 | -20 | 21 | LLLLD |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 18 | WLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNashville SC have won 13 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Nashville SC 4-0 and beat Nashville SC 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 10D 8L from the last 37 games (51% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Toronto FC have won 2 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Toronto FC 3-0 and beat Inter Miami 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 11D 11L from the last 31 games (29% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersNashville SC
No reported absences
Toronto FC
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Nashville SC have averaged 4.4 corners per match at home; Toronto FC 4.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Nashville SC have generated 1.37 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 51% of them. They put 3.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Nashville SC player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
