Tigres UANL vs Puebla Prediction, Tips & Odds
Tigres UANL vs Puebla
Match Preview
The model favours Puebla to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Puebla currently sits in seventh place with 13 points from seven matches, showcasing a strong start to their season. They have achieved four victories, demonstrating their attacking capabilities with 10 goals scored, while only conceding nine. Their recent form includes three wins in their last five matches, indicating positive momentum. In contrast, Tigres UANL is struggling in 14th place with just seven points from eight games. Their season has been marked by inconsistency, with only one win and a negative goal difference of -2. Their recent form of one win, three draws, and one loss reflects their challenges in converting opportunities into victories, which could hinder their performance against a more stable Puebla side. The model output suggests a win probability favouring Puebla, with a projected score of 2-1. However, Tigres UANL could exploit any lapses in Puebla's defense, which remains a concern. For a detailed breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.1% probability.
Tigres UANL have been the stronger side, winning 36% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Tigres UANL win as the most likely scoreline at 13.1% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Tigres UANL clean sheets, in line with their 31% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Tigres UANL are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Tigres UANL vs Puebla| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.45 | 4.45 | 5.80 | 1.59 | 2.25 | 1.71 | 1.99 | |
| 1.47 | 4.50 | 5.50 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.49 | 4.70 | 5.79 | 1.62 | 2.31 | — | — | |
| 1.44 | 4.00 | 5.00 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.00 | |
| 1.46 | 4.45 | 5.87 | 1.59 | 2.25 | 1.71 | 2.02 | |
Betano | 1.52 | 4.50 | 5.70 | 1.65 | 2.32 | 1.75 | 2.02 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Tigres UANL leads 6-1)Tigres UANL hold the edge in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 10 meetings with 3 draws and 1 Puebla win. The record points to a tie Tigres UANL have controlled for years, though the draws show Puebla have at times kept it tight.
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 17 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Toluca | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 16 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Club America | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 16 | LWWWW |
| 4 |  Cruz Azul | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 15 | WWWLL |
| 5 |  Club Queretaro | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 13 | WWLDW |
| 6 |  Club Tijuana | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 13 | LWLWD |
| 7 | Puebla | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 13 | WLWWD |
| 14 | Tigres UANL | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 7 | DDDWL |
| 16 |  Atletico San Luis | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 6 | LWDLD |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 | WLDLL |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 23 | -19 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonTigres UANL have won 10 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Tigres UANL 1-1 and beat Tigres UANL 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 13D 10L from the last 36 games (36% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Puebla have won 4 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 12. Their recent away fixtures include beat Puebla 0-1 and lost to Club America 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 5D 16L from the last 29 games (28% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersTigres UANL
No reported absences
Puebla
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Tigres UANL have averaged 5.5 corners per match at home; Puebla 4.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Tigres UANL have generated 1.46 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 36% of them. They put 3.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Tigres UANL player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
