Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Ludogorets Prediction, Tips & Odds
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Ludogorets
Match Preview
The model favours Ludogorets to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Ludogorets has shown a stronger form recently, with two wins, two draws, and just one loss in their last five matches. Their overall consistency in results suggests a team that can handle pressure and adapt effectively to their opponents. In contrast, Hapoel Tel Aviv has struggled in their recent outings, securing only one win against two draws and two losses. This lack of momentum could be a significant factor as they face a more stable Ludogorets side. The inability to convert draws into victories indicates potential vulnerabilities that could be exploited in this match. The model output indicates a win probability in favour of Ludogorets, highlighting their recent form and ability to perform well under pressure. However, one caveat is that Hapoel Tel Aviv playing at home could provide them with an advantage, as teams often perform better in familiar surroundings. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where the analysis is based on expected goals and actual results from the season, conducted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Hapoel Tel Aviv have kept a clean sheet in 36% of matches. Ludogorets average 1.2 goals per game.
Hapoel Tel Aviv manage games at home, conceding just 1.21 goals per match. Ludogorets score 1.20 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 18.1% probability.
Ludogorets have been the stronger side, winning 47% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 18.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Ludogorets are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Ludogorets| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.20 | 3.15 | 2.18 | 2.35 | 1.55 | 1.95 | 1.70 | |
| 3.32 | 3.10 | 2.20 | 2.40 | 1.54 | 2.01 | 1.70 | |
| 3.25 | 3.00 | 2.15 | 2.25 | 1.57 | 1.91 | 1.73 | |
| 3.37 | 3.07 | 2.20 | 2.43 | 1.53 | — | — | |
| 2.80 | 2.78 | 2.20 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.25 | 2.90 | 2.25 | — | — | 2.05 | 1.73 | |
| 3.10 | 3.20 | 2.10 | 2.38 | 1.53 | 2.20 | 1.62 | |
| 3.34 | 3.10 | 2.22 | 2.40 | 1.54 | 2.01 | 1.72 | |
| 3.20 | 3.05 | 2.23 | 2.28 | 1.53 | 1.93 | 1.75 | |
Betano | 3.20 | 3.15 | 2.25 | 2.40 | 1.55 | 2.05 | 1.70 |
Superbet | 3.05 | 3.05 | 2.35 | 2.35 | 1.53 | 2.02 | 1.70 |
BetVictor | 3.40 | 3.10 | 2.20 | 2.31 | 1.52 | 2.00 | 1.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (evenly matched 0-0)The head-to-head record between Hapoel Tel Aviv and Ludogorets stands at one match, with both teams drawing once and neither side securing a win. The lone fixture ended in a 0-0 draw, indicating a tightly contested matchup with no goals scored. This suggests that both teams were defensively solid, but it also reflects a lack of offensive output in their meeting. As there have been no wins for either side in this head-to-head, it remains to be seen how future encounters will unfold.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonHapoel Tel Aviv have won 3 of their last 6 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Ludogorets 2-0 and lost to Hapoel Beer Sheva 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 5D 4L from the last 14 games (36% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Ludogorets have won 2 of their last 6 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include beat Ludogorets 0-2 and lost to Hapoel Tel Aviv 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 4D 4L from the last 15 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersHapoel Tel Aviv
No reported absences
Ludogorets
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
A. Dudic has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by A. Dudic to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Hapoel Tel Aviv average 1.3 goals per match at home; Ludogorets 1.2 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Ludogorets have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 47% of their matches and averaging 1.2 goals per game. Ludogorets player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
