Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction, Tips & Odds
Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes
Match Preview
The model favours Houston Dynamo to win, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against San Jose Earthquakes. Houston currently sits at the top of the league table, with 35 points from 19 matches, boasting an impressive record of 11 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses. Their recent form is particularly strong, having secured four victories and one draw in their last five matches, which highlights their attacking prowess with 28 goals scored this season. On the other hand, San Jose Earthquakes are positioned fourth in the standings with 33 points from the same number of games. Their season has been characterized by a solid goal-scoring ability, netting 38 goals, but they have struggled in recent weeks. With no wins in their last five matches and only one draw, their confidence may be low heading into this fixture. The model gives Houston Dynamo a win probability of approximately 58%, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage indicates that Dynamo are favoured to win at home. However, a potential caveat is that if San Jose can find their form and capitalize on counter-attacks, they could pose a threat. For a detailed explanation of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that assesses expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.3% probability.
Houston Dynamo have been the stronger side, winning 56% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Houston Dynamo win as the most likely scoreline at 13.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Houston Dynamo are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.73 | 4.10 | 4.00 | 1.50 | 2.55 | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 1.59 | 4.10 | 5.00 | 1.45 | 2.42 | 1.53 | 2.31 | |
| 1.62 | 4.33 | 4.75 | 1.47 | 2.63 | 1.50 | 2.55 | |
| 1.62 | 4.26 | 5.38 | 1.51 | 2.64 | — | — | |
| 1.55 | 4.12 | 4.64 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.57 | 4.20 | 4.75 | — | — | 1.55 | 2.30 | |
| 1.60 | 4.33 | 5.00 | 1.48 | 2.60 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 1.66 | 4.10 | 4.40 | 1.46 | 2.65 | 1.49 | 2.45 | |
Betano | 1.65 | 4.35 | 5.30 | 1.52 | 2.60 | 1.53 | 2.40 |
Superbet | 1.66 | 4.20 | 4.70 | 1.56 | 2.45 | 1.58 | 2.30 |
BetVictor | 1.57 | 4.33 | 5.00 | 1.45 | 2.63 | 1.50 | 2.40 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Houston Dynamo leads 6-2)In the last 10 matches between Houston Dynamo and San Jose Earthquakes, Houston has won 6 times, San Jose has won 2, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of competitive and high-scoring encounters, with several matches ending in narrow margins, such as 2-1 and 1-2. Notably, Houston secured heavy wins, including a 4-1 victory, while San Jose's last win against Houston came in April 2023. Overall, the record suggests a favorable trend for Houston, but San Jose has shown the ability to compete closely in several fixtures.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 25 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 50 | 21 | 29 | 54 | DLDWW |
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 53 | 23 | 30 | 46 | LWLWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 61 | 46 | 15 | 45 | DDDWL |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 43 | LWDDL |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 43 | WWWDL |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 41 | 31 | 10 | 43 | WWLWD |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 44 | 36 | 8 | 41 | WWDDL |
| 14 |  Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 28 | DDDDL |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 31 | 51 | -20 | 21 | LLLLD |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 18 | WLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonHouston Dynamo have won 14 of their last 20 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Houston Dynamo 2-1 and drew with Houston Dynamo 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 8D 8L from the last 36 games (56% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
San Jose Earthquakes have won 7 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include beat San Diego 2-3 and drew with Austin 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 6D 8L from the last 32 games (56% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedHouston Dynamo4-1-4-1Confirmed
San Jose Earthquakes3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
10 playersHouston Dynamo3
San Jose Earthquakes7
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
P. Lauziere has averaged 1.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Houston Dynamo have averaged 3.8 corners per match at home; San Jose Earthquakes 5.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Houston Dynamo have generated 1.18 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 56% of them. They put 4.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Houston Dynamo player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
