KuPS vs Vardar Skopje Prediction, Tips & Odds
KuPS vs Vardar Skopje
Match Preview
The model favours KuPS to win against Vardar Skopje, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. KuPS has shown impressive form lately, securing four wins and one draw in their last five matches. This strong performance indicates that they are in a good place as they approach this crucial qualifying match. Their recent success will likely give them confidence and momentum heading into the fixture. Vardar Skopje has also been performing well, with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. While they have had a solid run, the one loss may linger in the back of their minds as they face a resilient KuPS side. The ability to bounce back from setbacks will be key for Vardar if they hope to compete effectively in this matchup. The model gives KuPS a higher win probability, reflecting their current form and overall performance. However, the unpredictability of knockout matches can lead to surprises, and Vardar's recent victories demonstrate their capability to challenge strong opponents. For a detailed look into our prediction method, which utilises expected goals and actual results throughout the season, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team has carefully considered these factors in arriving at our forecast.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.7% probability.
KuPS have been the stronger side, winning 62% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 KuPS win as the most likely scoreline at 13.7% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature KuPS clean sheets, in line with their 46% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. KuPS are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
KuPS vs Vardar Skopje| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.48 | 4.50 | 5.20 | 1.55 | 2.35 | 1.65 | 2.05 | |
| 1.49 | 4.33 | 5.85 | 1.49 | 2.32 | 1.63 | 2.11 | |
| 1.40 | 4.40 | 5.50 | 1.50 | 2.40 | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| 1.49 | 4.30 | 5.82 | 1.58 | 2.33 | — | — | |
| 1.38 | 4.12 | 5.51 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.44 | 4.00 | 5.00 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 1.48 | 4.20 | 5.50 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 1.50 | 4.33 | 5.86 | 1.49 | 2.32 | 1.63 | 2.14 | |
| 1.49 | 4.30 | 5.75 | 1.49 | 2.40 | 1.61 | 2.15 | |
Betano | 1.50 | 4.35 | 5.50 | 1.55 | 2.35 | 1.67 | 2.07 |
Superbet | 1.48 | 4.45 | 5.45 | 1.53 | 2.35 | 1.67 | 2.07 |
BetVictor | 1.45 | 4.75 | 6.50 | 1.54 | 2.27 | 1.65 | 2.10 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (KuPS leads 1-0)In their only previous encounter, KuPS won against Vardar Skopje with a score of 2-0. This match indicates a clear advantage for KuPS, demonstrating a one-sided result with no draws or other outcomes recorded. The scoreline suggests a solid performance from KuPS, while Vardar Skopje has yet to find success in this matchup. As it stands, Vardar Skopje has not won against KuPS in their history, highlighting the challenge they face if they meet again.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonKuPS have won 3 of their last 6 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Vardar Skopje 2-3 and beat Ilves 4-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 4D 1L from the last 13 games (62% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Vardar Skopje have won 5 of their last 8 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 1. Their recent away fixtures include beat KuPS 2-3 and beat Virtus 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 2D 3L from the last 15 games (67% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedKuPS4-2-3-1Confirmed
Vardar Skopje5-4-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersKuPS
No reported absences
Vardar Skopje
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. MacDermid has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by M. MacDermid to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
KuPS average 1.9 goals per match at home; Vardar Skopje 2.5 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
KuPS have generated 3.10 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 62% of them. They put 3.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. KuPS player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
