Lanus vs San Lorenzo Prediction, Tips & Odds
Lanus vs San Lorenzo
Match Preview
The model favours Lanus to win this match against San Lorenzo, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Lanus currently sits in 6th place in the Liga Profesional standings, having accumulated 24 points from 16 matches. Their season has been marked by a mixed bag of results, with a record of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses. Notably, they have managed to score 18 goals while conceding 15, giving them a positive goal difference of 3, which indicates a slightly stronger offensive performance compared to their defensive record. Conversely, San Lorenzo is in 7th place with 22 points, just two points behind Lanus. Their season has featured 5 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses, with an even goal tally of 14 scored and 14 conceded. However, San Lorenzo has struggled in recent matches, failing to secure a win in their last five outings, which includes three draws and two losses. This lack of form could hinder their ability to capitalize on opportunities against a determined Lanus side. The model output suggests a win probability of 55% for Lanus, while San Lorenzo's chance stands at 25%. One key market percentage to note is that the model indicates a 60% chance of over 1.5 goals being scored in the match. However, a potential pitfall for Lanus could be their recent inconsistency, having lost four of their last five matches. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as the analysis is based on an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Lanus have kept a clean sheet in 44% of matches. San Lorenzo average 1.0 goals per game.
Lanus manage games at home, conceding just 1.04 goals per match. San Lorenzo score 1.04 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 22.3% probability.
Lanus have been the stronger side, winning 44% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Lanus win as the most likely scoreline at 22.3% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Lanus clean sheets, in line with their 44% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Lanus are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Lanus vs San Lorenzo| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.00 | 2.90 | 4.40 | 3.10 | 1.35 | 2.50 | 1.48 | |
| 2.02 | 2.82 | 4.50 | 2.99 | 1.30 | 2.51 | 1.45 | |
| 1.95 | 2.90 | 4.33 | 3.10 | 1.36 | — | — | |
| 2.08 | 2.96 | 4.65 | 3.26 | 1.36 | — | — | |
| 2.03 | 2.77 | 3.92 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.00 | 2.75 | 4.40 | — | — | 2.50 | 1.44 | |
| 2.05 | 2.90 | 4.33 | 3.40 | 1.33 | 2.62 | 1.44 | |
| 2.06 | 2.87 | 4.58 | 2.99 | 1.30 | 2.51 | 1.46 | |
| 1.92 | 3.00 | 4.90 | 3.25 | 1.32 | 2.65 | 1.42 | |
Betano | 2.07 | 2.92 | 4.45 | 3.25 | 1.37 | 2.55 | 1.47 |
Superbet | 2.07 | 2.90 | 4.45 | 3.25 | 1.35 | 2.60 | 1.46 |
BetVictor | 2.05 | 2.90 | 4.40 | 3.25 | 1.33 | 2.55 | 1.45 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Lanus leads 6-2)In the last 10 matches between Lanus and San Lorenzo, Lanus has secured 6 wins, while San Lorenzo has won 2 times, with 2 matches ending in a draw. The scorelines indicate a tendency for Lanus to achieve narrow victories, as seen in several matches ending with a one-goal difference, such as 2-1 and 2-0. There have also been two draws, both ending 1-1. San Lorenzo's last win against Lanus came in August 2023, suggesting a recent competitive edge for Lanus in their encounters. Overall, the head-to-head record shows a favorable position for Lanus in this rivalry.
Liga Profesional Argentina Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Independ. Rivadavia | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 34 | LDWDW |
| 1 |  Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 31 | LWDWW |
| 2 |  Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 30 | LWWWD |
| 2 |  River Plate | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 29 | LWWWL |
| 3 |  Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 28 | LDDDW |
| 3 |  Argentinos JRS | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 29 | LWWLW |
| 6 | Lanus | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 24 | LDDLW |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 22 | LLWDD |
| 14 |  Newells Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 15 | DDWDW |
| 15 |  Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 24 | -19 | 5 | LLLLD |
| 15 |  Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 11 | DWLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonLanus have won 8 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Cienciano 2-0 and beat Mirassol 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 6D 9L from the last 27 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
San Lorenzo have won 2 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 9 and losing 1. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Santos 2-2 and drew with River Plate 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 14D 5L from the last 26 games (27% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersLanus
No reported absences
San Lorenzo
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
L. Rey Hilfer has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by L. Rey Hilfer to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Lanus have averaged 5.2 corners per match at home; San Lorenzo 4.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Lanus have generated 1.12 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 44% of them. They put 4.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Lanus player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
