Le Havre vs Auxerre Prediction, Tips & Odds
Le Havre vs Auxerre
Match Preview
The model favours Le Havre to win against Auxerre, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in 18th place, Le Havre has struggled this season, with just two points from five matches. Their form reflects this challenge, with one win, two draws, and two losses. Notably, they have scored four goals while conceding seven, resulting in a negative goal difference of three. This match presents an opportunity for Le Havre to turn their fortunes around on home soil. Auxerre, in contrast, is positioned 10th and has garnered six points from their five games, with two wins, no draws, and three losses. Their recent form shows a mixed bag, with three wins followed by two losses. They have scored seven goals but have also conceded twelve, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities. Despite these challenges, Auxerre's ability to find the net can pose a threat to Le Havre's struggling defence. The model gives Le Havre a win probability of 39.1%, while Auxerre's chances sit at 33.1%. The projected score of 2-1 reflects a potential for over 2.5 goals, with a 50.8% likelihood. However, a caveat exists; if Le Havre's lack of form continues, they could struggle to capitalize on home advantage. The full methodology of our prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyses fixtures through expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.2% probability.
Le Havre have been the stronger side, winning 23% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Le Havre are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Le Havre vs Auxerre| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.36 | 3.42 | 3.06 | 1.89 | 1.93 | 1.66 | 2.09 | |
| 2.25 | 3.40 | 3.25 | 1.87 | 1.90 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.31 | 3.45 | 3.22 | 1.89 | 1.99 | — | — | |
| 2.23 | 3.05 | 2.82 | 1.91 | 1.93 | — | — | |
| 2.30 | 3.25 | 2.90 | — | — | 1.73 | 2.05 | |
| 2.25 | 3.40 | 3.20 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 2.42 | 3.51 | 3.14 | 1.95 | 1.99 | 1.66 | 2.12 | |
Betano | 2.30 | 3.40 | 3.10 | 1.91 | 1.93 | 1.70 | 2.07 |
BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.00 | 1.81 | 1.86 | 1.65 | 2.10 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Le Havre leads 5-2)In the last 10 matches between Le Havre and Auxerre, Le Havre has won 5 times, Auxerre has won 2 times, and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines indicate a relatively balanced contest, with several tight matches, as evidenced by four fixtures ending in draws or a one-goal margin. Notably, Le Havre has had a stronger recent performance, winning four of the last five encounters. Auxerre's last victory in this matchup came in May 2022, suggesting a trend of Le Havre's dominance in more recent meetings.
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 14 | DWDWW |
| 2 |  Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 13 | WLWWD |
| 3 |  Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 13 | WLWWW |
| 4 |  Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 11 | LWDWD |
| 5 |  Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 11 | LWDWW |
| 6 |  Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 11 | WWWLD |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 6 | LWWLL |
| 17 |  Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 | LLLLW |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2 | LLDLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonLe Havre have won 5 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include beat Le Havre 6-1 and lost to Le Havre 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 10D 14L from the last 31 games (23% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Auxerre have won 3 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Auxerre 4-1 and lost to Lyon 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 9D 12L from the last 30 games (30% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersLe Havre
No reported absences
Auxerre
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Eric Wattellier has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Eric Wattellier to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Le Havre have averaged 4.2 corners per match at home; Auxerre 6.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Le Havre have generated 0.79 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 23% of them. They put 3.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Le Havre player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
