Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 Prediction, Tips & Odds
Lille vs Stade Brestois 29
Match Preview
The model favours Lille to win against Stade Brestois 29 with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Lille currently sits in fourth place in Ligue 1, having accumulated 10 points from their first five matches, with a record of three wins, one draw, and one loss. Their goal difference of +4 highlights their solid attacking and defensive capabilities, particularly as they have scored eight goals while conceding only four. In contrast, Stade Brestois 29 is positioned in 11th place with just five points from their five games, reflecting a struggle to find consistent form. They have managed only one win, alongside two draws and two losses. With a goal difference of -1, their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed, and they will need to improve significantly to challenge a strong side like Lille. The model outputs a win probability of 58.5% for Lille, with a 23.1% chance of a draw and an 18.4% chance of a Stade Brestois 29 victory. One key market to note is that the odds suggest over 2.5 goals are likely at 57%. However, a potential caveat is Lille's inconsistency, as evidenced by their mixed form in recent matches. For a deeper understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures using expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.4% probability.
Lille have been the stronger side, winning 49% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Lille are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Lille vs Stade Brestois 29| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.94 | 3.78 | 3.80 | 1.72 | 2.15 | 1.61 | 2.17 | |
| 1.87 | 3.80 | 4.00 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
| 2.00 | 3.79 | 3.70 | 1.74 | 2.17 | — | — | |
| 1.85 | 3.30 | 3.50 | 1.68 | 2.19 | — | — | |
| 1.91 | 3.60 | 3.60 | — | — | 1.65 | 2.20 | |
| 1.85 | 3.75 | 4.00 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.99 | 3.88 | 3.90 | 1.77 | 2.22 | 1.61 | 2.20 | |
Betano | 1.85 | 3.85 | 3.95 | 1.72 | 2.18 | 1.62 | 2.20 |
BetVictor | 1.90 | 3.60 | 3.50 | 1.66 | 2.05 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Lille leads 3-2)In the last 10 encounters between Lille and Stade Brestois 29, Lille has won 3 matches, there have been 5 draws, and Stade Brestois 29 has won 2 times. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several closely contested matches, including three draws and multiple one-goal margins. Notably, the highest-scoring match was a 3-3 draw, while Lille's victories have mostly been narrow, with only one match ending with a two-goal difference. Stade Brestois 29 last secured a win over Lille in January 2022, highlighting a recent trend of Lille having the upper hand in this matchup.
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 14 | DWDWW |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 13 | WLWWD |
| 3 |  Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 13 | WLWWW |
| 4 |  Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 11 | LWDWD |
| 5 |  Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 11 | LWDWW |
| 6 |  Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 11 | WWWLD |
| 8 | Stade Brestois 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 8 | WLLWD |
| 16 |  Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 6 | LWWLL |
| 17 |  Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 | LLLLW |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2 | LLDLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonLille have won 7 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Lille 1-0 and beat Lille 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 8D 10L from the last 35 games (49% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Stade Brestois 29 have won 3 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Auxerre 2-1 and beat Le Havre 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 12D 11L from the last 30 games (23% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
7 playersLille3
Stade Brestois 294
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Clement Turpin has averaged 2.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Lille average 1.3 goals per match at home; Stade Brestois 29 1.4 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Lille have generated 1.39 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 49% of them. They put 6.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Lille player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
