Angers vs Marseille Prediction, Tips & Odds
Angers vs Marseille
Match Preview
The model favours Marseille to win, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Despite their current low league position, Marseille has shown some attacking potential this season, scoring seven goals in five matches. However, their defensive issues have led to four losses in their last five games, which underscores the urgency for improvement as they sit in 17th place with just three points. Angers, on the other hand, occupies 7th place, having secured two wins, one draw, and two losses. Their form indicates a mixed performance, but they have managed to score six goals while conceding five, giving them a positive goal difference. This suggests they have the capability to compete effectively, especially at home, where they will be looking to capitalize on Marseille's struggles. The model gives Marseille a win probability of 43.1%, while Angers has a 30.8% chance of winning. With a projected score of 2-1 and over 2.5 goals at 58.7%, the match could see plenty of action. However, Marseille's poor recent form is a significant caveat; if they fail to turn things around, Angers could take advantage and secure a vital home victory. For a detailed breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.1% probability.
Marseille have been the stronger side, winning 40% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Marseille are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Angers vs Marseille| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.46 | 3.72 | 2.06 | 1.62 | 2.33 | 1.51 | 2.39 | |
| 3.25 | 3.90 | 2.05 | 1.57 | 2.38 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 3.53 | 3.82 | 2.04 | 1.65 | 2.33 | — | — | |
| 2.89 | 3.26 | 2.09 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.25 | 3.50 | 2.05 | — | — | 1.53 | 2.45 | |
| 3.40 | 3.80 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 2.30 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 3.56 | 3.82 | 2.12 | 1.67 | 2.40 | 1.51 | 2.42 | |
Betano | 3.20 | 3.75 | 2.12 | 1.62 | 2.35 | 1.52 | 2.42 |
BetVictor | 3.30 | 3.60 | 1.95 | 1.58 | 2.19 | 1.50 | 2.40 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Marseille leads 6-1)In the last 10 matches between Angers and Marseille, Marseille has won 6 times, Angers has won once, and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines indicate a largely one-sided affair, with Marseille often achieving comfortable victories, including three matches with a margin of two goals or more. The most significant win for Marseille was a 5-2 victory, highlighting their ability to dominate in key fixtures. Angers' last win against Marseille came in December 2020, suggesting a challenging trend for them in this matchup.
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 14 | DWDWW |
| 2 |  Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 13 | WLWWD |
| 3 |  Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 13 | WLWWW |
| 4 |  Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 11 | LWDWD |
| 5 |  Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 11 | LWDWW |
| 6 |  Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 11 | WWWLD |
| 12 | Angers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 | LWDLW |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 6 | WLLLL |
| 16 |  Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 6 | LWWLL |
| 17 |  Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 | LLLLW |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2 | LLDLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAngers have won 7 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include beat Angers 2-0 and lost to Angers 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 6D 14L from the last 29 games (31% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Marseille have won 3 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include beat Marseille 0-2 and lost to Beşiktaş 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 4D 14L from the last 30 games (40% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAngers
No reported absences
Marseille
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Jeremie Pignard has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Jeremie Pignard to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Angers have averaged 5.8 corners per match at home; Marseille 5.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Marseille have generated 1.85 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 40% of them. They put 5.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Marseille player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
