Le Havre vs Monaco Prediction, Tips & Odds
Le Havre vs Monaco
Match Preview
The model favours Monaco to win against Le Havre, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Monaco enters this match with a strong recent form, having secured three wins in their last five games, alongside one draw and just one loss. This performance positions them well as they start the season, and they will be looking to build on their momentum from the previous campaign. On the other hand, Le Havre faces a challenge as they have struggled in their last five matches, managing only one win, one draw, and three losses. This inconsistency could affect their confidence as they kick off the new season. With no points yet on the board and a tough first match against a higher-ranked opponent, they will need to find their rhythm quickly. The model indicates a win probability of around 60% for Monaco, suggesting they are likely to take all three points. However, a potential caveat for this prediction is that the start of the season can be unpredictable, and Le Havre may surprise with a strong performance at home. The full methodology of our analysis, which includes expected goals and actual results, can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.9% probability.
Monaco have been the stronger side, winning 55% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Monaco are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Le Havre vs Monaco| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.60 | 3.75 | 1.90 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 3.90 | 3.90 | 1.93 | 1.74 | 2.12 | 1.62 | 2.16 | |
| 3.90 | 3.75 | 1.95 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
| 3.99 | 3.76 | 1.95 | 1.77 | 2.16 | — | — | |
| 3.54 | 3.47 | 1.93 | 1.76 | 2.11 | — | — | |
| 3.60 | 3.60 | 1.91 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.20 | |
| 3.70 | 3.80 | 1.91 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 3.96 | 3.96 | 1.96 | 1.79 | 2.18 | 1.62 | 2.18 | |
| 3.65 | 3.65 | 1.90 | 1.66 | 2.20 | 1.56 | 2.30 | |
| 3.60 | 3.50 | 1.91 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.67 | 2.20 | |
Betano | 3.65 | 3.80 | 1.95 | 1.75 | 2.15 | 1.62 | 2.20 |
Superbet | 3.75 | 3.75 | 1.97 | 1.74 | 2.12 | 1.65 | 2.20 |
BetVictor | 3.75 | 3.70 | 1.91 | 1.69 | 2.01 | 1.60 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Monaco leads 4-1)In the last 10 matches between Le Havre and Monaco, Le Havre has won 1, there have been 5 draws, and Monaco has secured 4 victories. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several tight matches, as evidenced by the 5 draws and multiple games finishing with a single goal difference. Notably, both teams have managed to keep clean sheets in 3 of the last 10 encounters, suggesting a tendency for low-scoring matches. Le Havre's solitary win came back in 2012, highlighting a lack of recent success against Monaco.
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lille | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 10 | WWDW |
| 2 | Monaco | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 10 | DWWW |
| 3 |  Rennes | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | WWWD |
| 4 |  Lyon | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 8 | DWDW |
| 5 |  Paris FC | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 8 | DWWD |
| 6 |  Strasbourg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 7 | DWWL |
| 16 | Le Havre | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 | DLDL |
| 17 |  Toulouse | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2 | DLDL |
| 18 |  Nice | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 2 | LDLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonLe Havre have won 4 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Stade Brestois 29 1-2 and lost to Monaco 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 10D 12L from the last 28 games (21% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Monaco have won 7 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat Monaco 1-2 and beat Le Havre 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 6D 7L from the last 29 games (55% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
11 playersLe Havre3
Monaco8
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. Pignard has averaged 5.0 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Le Havre have averaged 4.7 corners per match at home; Monaco 4.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Monaco have generated 1.72 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 55% of them. They put 5.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Monaco player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
