Lille vs Estac Troyes Prediction, Tips & Odds
Lille vs Estac Troyes
Match Preview
The model favours Lille to win against Estac Troyes, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Lille currently occupies third place in Ligue 1, having played two matches this season. With one win and one draw, they have scored four goals while conceding two, indicating a solid start to their campaign. Their recent form, with two wins and three draws in their last five matches, reflects their ability to compete effectively. Estac Troyes sits just behind Lille in sixth place, also with one win and one draw from their two matches. They have scored two goals and conceded only one, showcasing a strong defensive record. Like Lille, their last five matches have yielded two wins and three draws, suggesting they are equally resilient. However, their goal-scoring output is lower than Lille's, which could be a critical factor in this match. The model suggests a win probability of approximately 60% for Lille, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market to consider is Lille's home advantage, which has historically played a significant role in their performance at Stade Pierre-Mauroy. However, if Estac Troyes can maintain their strong defensive form and capitalize on counter-attacks, they could pose a challenge. For a detailed breakdown of our prediction methodology, see the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilizes an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Lille have kept a clean sheet in 45% of matches. Estac Troyes average 1.9 goals per game.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.2% probability.
Lille have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Lille win as the most likely scoreline at 15.2% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Lille clean sheets, in line with their 45% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Lille are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Lille vs Estac Troyes| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.40 | 4.60 | 7.25 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.95 | 1.77 | |
| 1.44 | 4.95 | 7.40 | 1.64 | 2.29 | 1.81 | 1.89 | |
| 1.40 | 4.75 | 7.50 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.87 | 1.87 | |
| 1.44 | 4.84 | 7.48 | 1.66 | 2.34 | — | — | |
| 1.37 | 4.19 | 6.18 | 1.66 | 2.21 | — | — | |
| 1.40 | 4.50 | 6.50 | — | — | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.42 | 4.75 | 7.00 | 1.62 | 2.30 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.46 | 5.03 | 7.50 | 1.69 | 2.36 | 1.81 | 1.91 | |
| 1.34 | 4.75 | 8.50 | 1.79 | 1.98 | 2.12 | 1.65 | |
Betano | 1.45 | 4.85 | 7.50 | 1.65 | 2.30 | 1.82 | 1.93 |
BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.75 | 7.50 | 1.58 | 2.18 | 1.78 | 1.93 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Lille leads 4-3)In the last 10 matches between Lille and Estac Troyes, Lille has won 4 times, there have been 3 draws, and Estac Troyes has also won 3 times. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several narrow victories, including a notable 5-1 win for Lille. However, both teams have had their share of heavy wins, such as Estac Troyes' 3-0 victory in May 2022. The matches have generally been balanced, with draws occurring frequently, and the last win for Estac Troyes against Lille was in May 2022.
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lille | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 10 | WWDW |
| 2 |  Monaco | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 10 | DWWW |
| 3 |  Rennes | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | WWWD |
| 4 |  Lyon | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 8 | DWDW |
| 5 |  Paris FC | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 8 | DWWD |
| 6 |  Strasbourg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 7 | DWWL |
| 12 | Estac Troyes | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 | LLWD |
| 16 |  Le Havre | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 | DLDL |
| 17 |  Toulouse | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2 | DLDL |
| 18 |  Nice | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 2 | LDLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonLille have won 4 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Lille 2-2 and beat Lille 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 8D 7L from the last 29 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Estac Troyes have won 4 of their last 7 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include beat Estac Troyes 1-2 and drew with Auxerre 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 3D 2L from the last 13 games (62% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
6 playersLille1
Estac Troyes5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Romain Lissorgue has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Romain Lissorgue to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Lille have averaged 3.0 corners per match at home; Estac Troyes 4.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Lille have generated 1.24 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 48% of them. They put 8.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Lille player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
