Lille vs Le Havre Prediction, Tips & Odds
Lille vs Le Havre
Match Preview
The model favours Lille to win against Le Havre, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Lille currently sits in a strong fourth position in Ligue 1 with 10 points from five matches, showcasing a solid start to the season. Their goal-scoring ability is reflected in their tally of eight goals, while they have maintained a respectable defensive record, conceding just four times. This combination of offensive and defensive stats highlights a team that is both capable of scoring and difficult to break down. In contrast, Le Havre has struggled significantly this season, languishing in 18th place with only two points from five games. They have yet to secure a victory, managing just two draws and three losses. With four goals scored and seven conceded, their goal difference of -3 indicates ongoing issues at both ends of the pitch. This lack of form has persisted, as they have not won any of their last five matches, further compounding their difficulties. The model predicts a 66.7% probability of a Lille victory, with a 20.5% chance of a draw and just a 12.8% likelihood of Le Havre winning. While Lille looks poised to capitalize on Le Havre's vulnerabilities, the caveat lies in the unpredictable nature of football; an unexpected event could disrupt Lille's rhythm. For a deeper understanding of this prediction, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyzes expected goals and actual results throughout the season. The Daily Punt Analysis Team remains committed to providing data-driven insights for informed predictions.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.7% probability.
Lille have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Lille win as the most likely scoreline at 13.7% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Lille clean sheets, in line with their 42% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Lille are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Lille vs Le Havre| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.44 | 4.75 | 7.30 | 1.67 | 2.23 | 1.83 | 1.87 | |
| 1.44 | 4.60 | 7.50 | 1.57 | 2.25 | 1.83 | 1.91 | |
| 1.45 | 4.95 | 6.78 | 1.64 | 2.35 | — | — | |
| 1.37 | 4.22 | 6.09 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.40 | 4.40 | 6.50 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.44 | 4.50 | 7.50 | 1.62 | 2.30 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.48 | 4.88 | 7.49 | 1.72 | 2.30 | 1.83 | 1.89 | |
Betano | 1.47 | 4.65 | 6.60 | 1.67 | 2.27 | 1.82 | 1.93 |
BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.50 | 6.50 | 1.59 | 2.17 | 1.75 | 1.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 7 Meetings (Lille leads 5-1)In their last seven encounters, Lille has won 5 matches, Le Havre has won 1, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a tendency for Lille to dominate, with three matches ending in a victory by a margin of at least two goals. The lone win for Le Havre came in a close 2-1 match, while the most recent fixture ended in a 1-1 draw. This suggests that Lille has a strong historical advantage, with Le Havre struggling to secure consistent results against them, particularly in the last few years.
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Monaco | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 13 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Lyon | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 11 | WDWDW |
| 3 |  Paris FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 11 | WDWWD |
| 4 | Lille | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 10 | LWWDW |
| 5 |  Rennes | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 | LWWWD |
| 6 |  Paris Saint Germain | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 8 | WWLDD |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 4 | LLLWD |
| 17 |  Marseille | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 3 | LLLLW |
| 18 | Le Havre | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2 | LDLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonLille have won 6 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Zulte Waregem 2-1 and beat Estac Troyes 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 8D 9L from the last 33 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Le Havre have won 2 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Toulouse 3-2 and drew with Lyon 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 11D 12L from the last 30 games (23% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersLille
No reported absences
Le Havre
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Lille have averaged 1.5 corners per match at home; Le Havre 4.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 3.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Lille have generated 1.25 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 48% of them. They put 6.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Lille player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
