Monaco vs Toulouse Prediction, Tips & Odds
Monaco vs Toulouse
Match Preview
The model favours Monaco to win against Toulouse, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting at the top of Ligue 1, Monaco has demonstrated strong form with four wins and one draw from their first five matches, scoring eight goals while conceding just three. Their goal difference of five highlights their solid defensive performance, which has been key to their success this season. On the other hand, Toulouse finds themselves in 13th place, with only one win in their first five matches and a goal difference of minus two. They have struggled defensively, allowing nine goals while scoring seven. Their recent form includes a win, two draws, and two losses, indicating inconsistency that has hindered their ability to climb the standings. The model gives Monaco a 53.6% win probability, with a projected score of 2-1. While the statistics lean in favour of Monaco, it is important to note that football can be unpredictable. An off day for Monaco or an inspired performance from Toulouse could lead to a different outcome. The full methodology for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as our in-house model evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.9% probability.
Monaco have been the stronger side, winning 56% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Monaco win as the most likely scoreline at 12.9% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Monaco clean sheets, in line with their 25% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Monaco are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Monaco vs Toulouse| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.60 | 4.35 | 5.30 | 1.60 | 2.38 | 1.62 | 2.16 | |
| 1.60 | 4.33 | 5.00 | 1.57 | 2.25 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.60 | 4.54 | 5.25 | 1.60 | 2.42 | — | — | |
| 1.54 | 3.86 | 4.60 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.60 | 4.00 | 4.75 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.25 | |
| 1.60 | 4.10 | 5.50 | 1.62 | 2.30 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.64 | 4.47 | 5.44 | 1.65 | 2.45 | 1.62 | 2.19 | |
Betano | 1.65 | 4.25 | 4.90 | 1.62 | 2.37 | 1.65 | 2.15 |
BetVictor | 1.55 | 4.10 | 5.00 | 1.56 | 2.23 | 1.60 | 2.20 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Monaco leads 5-2)In the last 10 matches between Monaco and Toulouse, Monaco has won 5 times, Toulouse has won 2, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a relatively competitive rivalry, with several close matches; four encounters ended with a one-goal difference, while two matches finished in draws. However, there have been no heavy defeats for either side, suggesting that both teams can contest effectively against each other. Toulouse's last victory against Monaco came over a year ago, highlighting a recent trend of Monaco's dominance in this fixture.
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 13 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Lyon | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 11 | WDWDW |
| 3 |  Paris FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 11 | WDWWD |
| 4 |  Lille | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 10 | LWWDW |
| 5 |  Rennes | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 | LWWWD |
| 6 |  Paris Saint Germain | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 8 | WWLDD |
| 13 | Toulouse | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 | WDLDL |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 4 | LLLWD |
| 17 |  Marseille | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 3 | LLLLW |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2 | LDLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonMonaco have won 10 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Lens 2-1 and beat Marseille 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 7D 7L from the last 32 games (56% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Toulouse have won 3 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Lorient 2-2 and drew with Stade Brestois 29 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 7D 10L from the last 26 games (35% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersMonaco
No reported absences
Toulouse
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Monaco have averaged 3.7 corners per match at home; Toulouse 6.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Monaco have generated 1.73 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 56% of them. They put 5.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Monaco player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
