Lommel United vs Charleroi Prediction, Tips & Odds
Lommel United vs Charleroi
Match Preview
The model favours Lommel United to win against Charleroi, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Lommel United starts the season in a promising position, currently sitting third in the league. Although they have yet to play a match this season, their recent form shows two wins in their last five matches, suggesting a competitive edge as they look to build momentum. Charleroi, on the other hand, is positioned sixth and also enters the season without any matches played. Their recent form indicates some struggles, with only one win in their last five matches. This inconsistency may hinder their ability to start the season strong, especially against a side like Lommel United that appears to have a more favorable recent record. The model's output suggests a win probability of around 60% for Lommel United, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market statistic to note is the implied odds reflecting Lommel United's advantage. However, a potential caveat to consider is that both teams are entering the season fresh, which can sometimes lead to unpredictable outcomes as players adjust. For more details on our prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.1% probability.
Charleroi have been the stronger side, winning 40% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Charleroi are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Lommel United vs Charleroi| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.10 | 3.45 | 2.20 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.20 | |
| 3.20 | 3.50 | 2.11 | 1.73 | 2.07 | 1.59 | 2.18 | |
| 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.05 | 1.73 | 2.00 | 1.60 | 2.25 | |
| 3.30 | 3.70 | 2.17 | 1.75 | 2.17 | — | — | |
| 3.05 | 3.30 | 2.08 | 1.76 | 2.11 | — | — | |
| 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.10 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 3.40 | 3.40 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 3.28 | 3.58 | 2.16 | 1.75 | 2.10 | 1.59 | 2.21 | |
| 3.25 | 3.35 | 2.14 | 1.82 | 1.95 | 1.62 | 2.12 | |
| 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 2.05 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
Betano | 3.30 | 3.45 | 2.20 | 1.78 | 2.10 | 1.60 | 2.27 |
BetVictor | 3.20 | 3.60 | 2.10 | 1.68 | 2.02 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (evenly matched 0-0)The head-to-head record between Lommel United and Charleroi stands at 0 wins for Lommel United, 1 draw, and 0 wins for Charleroi. Their only encounter ended in a 0-0 draw, indicating a tightly contested match with neither side able to find the net. This lack of scoring suggests a defensive battle, and with only one match played, there is insufficient data to determine any significant patterns or trends in their meetings. The absence of victories for either team highlights a competitive dynamic, albeit from a very limited sample size.
Jupiler Pro League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charleroi | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Zulte Waregem | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 7 | WDW |
| 3 |  Antwerp | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 7 | DWW |
| 4 |  Club Brugge KV | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 6 | WW |
| 5 |  Gent | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | WW |
| 6 |  Standard Liege | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 5 | WDD |
| 13 | Lommel United | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 | LD |
| 16 |  KVC Westerlo | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 0 | LL |
| 17 |  OH Leuven | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 0 | LL |
| 18 |  Kortrijk | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 0 | LL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonLommel United have won 7 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Charleroi 0-1 and lost to ADO Den Haag 0-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 5D 7L from the last 23 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Charleroi have won 6 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat Lommel United 0-1 and drew with Lens 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 6D 12L from the last 30 games (40% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersLommel United
No reported absences
Charleroi
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
K. van Damme has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by K. van Damme to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Lommel United have averaged 2.0 corners per match at home; Charleroi 2.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 3.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Charleroi have generated 1.50 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 40% of them. They put 4.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Charleroi player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
