Lorient vs Toulouse Prediction, Tips & Odds
Lorient vs Toulouse
Match Preview
The model favours Lorient to win against Toulouse, projecting a scoreline of 1-0. Lorient currently sits in 15th place in Ligue 1, having played two matches with one draw and one loss. Their goal-scoring has been a challenge, netting only one goal while conceding two. With a recent form of one win, one draw, and three losses across their last five matches, Lorient will be eager to secure their first victory of the season. On the other hand, Toulouse is positioned just below Lorient in 17th place, also with one draw and one loss from their two matches. They have scored two goals but have conceded four, indicating defensive vulnerabilities. Their form has seen them collect one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches. Both teams are still searching for consistency early in the season. The model output indicates a win probability of around 55% for Lorient, while the key market percentage suggests a 40% chance for a draw. However, the caveat here is that both teams are struggling for form, and an unexpected result could occur if either side capitalises on defensive mistakes. For a deeper understanding of this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which employs an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.0% probability.
Lorient have been the stronger side, winning 46% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Lorient are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Lorient vs Toulouse| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.80 | 2.10 | 1.73 | 1.77 | 1.93 | |
| 2.42 | 3.42 | 3.06 | 1.86 | 1.96 | 1.64 | 2.12 | |
| 2.40 | 3.30 | 3.00 | 1.87 | 1.90 | 1.60 | 2.25 | |
| 2.44 | 3.43 | 3.07 | 1.89 | 2.02 | — | — | |
| 2.33 | 3.26 | 2.81 | 1.90 | 1.96 | — | — | |
| 2.30 | 3.20 | 2.90 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
| 2.38 | 3.30 | 3.00 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 2.46 | 3.48 | 3.11 | 1.92 | 2.02 | 1.64 | 2.15 | |
| 2.60 | 3.20 | 2.65 | 2.05 | 1.74 | 1.76 | 1.97 | |
Betano | 2.40 | 3.25 | 3.05 | 1.88 | 1.95 | 1.65 | 2.15 |
BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.40 | 2.90 | 1.80 | 1.87 | 1.65 | 2.10 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Toulouse leads 4-1)In the last 10 matches between Lorient and Toulouse, Lorient has won 1 time, there have been 5 draws, and Toulouse has won 4 times. The scorelines indicate a competitive series, with several matches ending in draws and a mix of narrow victories. The closest games often finished with just a one-goal difference, as seen in Toulouse's recent 1-0 wins. Notably, Lorient's last victory in this matchup came in 2018, highlighting a trend where Toulouse has had the upper hand more recently, although the overall results suggest a relatively balanced rivalry.
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lille | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 10 | WWDW |
| 2 |  Monaco | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 10 | DWWW |
| 3 |  Rennes | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | WWWD |
| 4 |  Lyon | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 8 | DWDW |
| 5 |  Paris FC | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 8 | DWWD |
| 6 |  Strasbourg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 7 | DWWL |
| 9 | Lorient | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 | DWLD |
| 16 |  Le Havre | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 | DLDL |
| 17 | Toulouse | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2 | DLDL |
| 18 |  Nice | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 2 | LDLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonLorient have won 7 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Lorient 1-2 and beat Lorient 5-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 7D 8L from the last 28 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Toulouse have won 3 of their last 11 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Stade Brestois 29 2-2 and beat Strasbourg 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 6D 11L from the last 25 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedLorient3-4-2-1Confirmed
Toulouse4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
5 playersLorient1
Toulouse4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Aurelien Petit has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Aurelien Petit to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Lorient have averaged 6.0 corners per match at home; Toulouse 6.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Lorient have generated 1.87 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 46% of them. They put 6.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Lorient player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
