Los Angeles FC vs New York Red Bulls Prediction, Tips & Odds
Los Angeles FC vs New York Red Bulls
Match Preview
The model favours Los Angeles FC to win against New York Red Bulls, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Los Angeles FC currently sits in third place in the standings, having played 22 matches with a record of 10 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses. Their goal-scoring ability is notable, with 36 goals scored, resulting in a goal difference of +14. However, their recent form shows some inconsistency, with just one win in their last five matches. On the other hand, New York Red Bulls are positioned eighth, with 21 matches played and a record of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses. They have struggled defensively this season, conceding 43 goals, which contributes to a negative goal difference of -12. Their recent form has also been disappointing, with only one win in their last five outings, indicating challenges in both attack and defense. The model provides Los Angeles FC with a win probability of approximately 60%, suggesting they are the more likely side to secure the three points. However, a key caveat is their recent form, which raises questions about their consistency. For a detailed explanation of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.5% probability.
Los Angeles FC have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Los Angeles FC win as the most likely scoreline at 12.5% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Los Angeles FC clean sheets, in line with their 45% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Los Angeles FC are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Los Angeles FC vs New York Red Bulls| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.39 | 5.10 | 6.40 | 1.35 | 3.10 | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 1.37 | 5.25 | 6.60 | 1.30 | 2.99 | 1.49 | 2.40 | |
| 1.40 | 5.00 | 6.50 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 1.53 | 2.45 | |
| 1.40 | 5.52 | 6.93 | 1.36 | 3.28 | — | — | |
| 1.34 | 4.94 | 6.18 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.40 | 4.80 | 6.00 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.50 | |
| 1.38 | 5.25 | 7.50 | 1.33 | 3.40 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 1.40 | 5.20 | 6.25 | 1.29 | 3.45 | 1.45 | 2.55 | |
| 1.40 | 4.80 | 6.00 | 1.33 | 3.10 | 1.44 | 2.50 | |
Betano | 1.42 | 5.40 | 7.60 | 1.37 | 3.10 | 1.55 | 2.37 |
Superbet | 1.39 | 5.35 | 6.60 | 1.35 | 3.25 | 1.53 | 2.40 |
BetVictor | 1.36 | 5.25 | 7.00 | 1.33 | 3.20 | 1.47 | 2.45 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 4 Meetings (Los Angeles FC leads 2-1)In the last four matches between Los Angeles FC and New York Red Bulls, Los Angeles FC has won 2, New York Red Bulls has won 1, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with two matches featuring a total of six or more goals, suggesting a potential for high-scoring encounters. The draw occurred in the most recent meeting, while New York Red Bulls' last victory came in 2018. Overall, the results reflect a balanced contest, although Los Angeles FC has had the upper hand in recent fixtures.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 53 | 23 | 30 | 46 | LWLWW |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 25 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 50 | 21 | 29 | 54 | DLDWW |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 43 | LWDDL |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 61 | 46 | 15 | 45 | DDDWL |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 41 | 31 | 10 | 43 | WWLWD |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 43 | WWWDL |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 41 | 27 | 14 | 40 | LWDDD |
| 10 | New York Red Bulls | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 33 | 48 | -15 | 30 | WLDLD |
| 14 |  Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 28 | DDDDL |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 18 | WLLLD |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 31 | 51 | -20 | 21 | LLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonLos Angeles FC have won 13 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Los Angeles FC 2-0 and drew with Los Angeles FC 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 13D 8L from the last 40 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
New York Red Bulls have won 3 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to New York Red Bulls 2-0 and drew with Seattle Sounders 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 6D 15L from the last 31 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
9 playersLos Angeles FC5
New York Red Bulls4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Los Angeles FC have averaged 7.0 corners per match at home; New York Red Bulls 4.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Los Angeles FC have generated 1.14 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 48% of them. They put 5.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Los Angeles FC player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
