Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution Prediction, Tips & Odds
Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution
Match Preview
The model favours Los Angeles Galaxy to win, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned 12th in the league, Galaxy has had a challenging season with six wins, eight draws, and eight losses, accumulating 26 points. They have managed to score 27 goals while conceding 32, resulting in a goal difference of -5. Notably, their recent form shows some improvement, with one win, three draws, and one loss in their last five matches. On the other hand, the New England Revolution sit in a stronger fourth place with 34 points, having achieved ten wins, four draws, and seven losses from 21 matches. They have scored 33 goals and conceded 26, giving them a goal difference of +7. However, their recent form has dipped, with only one win and two draws in their last five matches, indicating potential vulnerabilities as they face a Galaxy side looking to capitalize on home advantage. The model outputs a 47.4% win probability for Los Angeles Galaxy, a 24.9% chance of a draw, and a 27.7% likelihood of a New England Revolution win. While the Galaxy's recent form is encouraging, they must overcome their defensive inconsistencies to secure a victory. For more details on our prediction methodology, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.7% probability.
New England Revolution have been the stronger side, winning 45% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. New England Revolution are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Los Angeles Galaxy vs New England Revolution| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.28 | 3.80 | 2.72 | 1.55 | 2.40 | 1.48 | 2.50 | |
| 2.48 | 3.76 | 2.48 | 1.43 | 2.48 | 1.40 | 2.68 | |
| 2.30 | 3.75 | 2.75 | 1.50 | 2.55 | 1.44 | 2.70 | |
| 2.58 | 3.94 | 2.55 | 1.51 | 2.64 | — | — | |
| 2.45 | 3.60 | 2.45 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.62 | |
| 2.60 | 3.80 | 2.50 | 1.48 | 2.60 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 2.30 | 3.65 | 2.75 | 1.55 | 2.40 | 1.45 | 2.55 | |
Betano | 2.37 | 3.80 | 2.75 | 1.53 | 2.57 | 1.45 | 2.62 |
BetVictor | 2.50 | 3.75 | 2.50 | 1.47 | 2.55 | 1.40 | 2.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Los Angeles Galaxy leads 5-4)In the last ten matches between Los Angeles Galaxy and New England Revolution, Los Angeles Galaxy has won 5 times, New England Revolution has won 4 times, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several close matches; however, Los Angeles Galaxy has achieved a few significant victories, including a 5-1 win in 2014. The presence of high-scoring games, such as the 4-3 and 5-0 matches, suggests both teams can generate attacking threats. New England Revolution's last win in this fixture was in 2019, indicating that Los Angeles Galaxy has had the upper hand in more recent encounters.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 25 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 50 | 21 | 29 | 54 | DLDWW |
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 53 | 23 | 30 | 46 | LWLWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 61 | 46 | 15 | 45 | DDDWL |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 43 | LWDDL |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 43 | WWWDL |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 41 | 31 | 10 | 43 | WWLWD |
| 10 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 30 | DLWLD |
| 14 |  Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 28 | DDDDL |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 18 | WLLLD |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 31 | 51 | -20 | 21 | LLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonLos Angeles Galaxy have won 8 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Seattle Sounders 1-1 and beat New England Revolution 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 12D 13L from the last 37 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
New England Revolution have won 4 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat New England Revolution 1-2 and beat New York City FC 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 7D 11L from the last 33 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedLos Angeles Galaxy4-3-3Confirmed
New England Revolution4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
6 playersLos Angeles Galaxy3
New England Revolution3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Los Angeles Galaxy have averaged 5.4 corners per match at home; New England Revolution 5.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
New England Revolution have generated 1.57 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 45% of them. They put 5.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. New England Revolution player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
