Lyon vs Rennes Prediction, Tips & Odds
Lyon vs Rennes
Match Preview
The model favours Lyon to win against Rennes, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Lyon currently sits in third place in Ligue 1, having made a solid start to the season with two wins and one draw from their first three matches. They have scored six goals and conceded only two, showcasing a strong goal difference of four. Their overall form is promising, with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, indicating resilience and attacking capability. Rennes, on the other hand, is in fifth place, also with two wins and one draw from three games, but they have a less impressive goal difference of two. They have scored seven goals but have conceded five, which highlights some defensive vulnerabilities. Their recent form has been concerning, with only one win in their last five matches, including three losses. This dip in performance could impact their confidence going into the match against a strong Lyon side. The model predicts a win probability of 55% for Lyon and a 25% chance for Rennes, with a key market indicator suggesting Lyon will be the favourite at the betting lines. However, one caveat is that if Rennes can tighten their defence and capitalize on any mistakes from Lyon, they could upset the odds. The full method used for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season, as analyzed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.9% probability.
Lyon have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Lyon are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Lyon vs Rennes| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.18 | 3.74 | 3.15 | 1.50 | 2.38 | 1.45 | 2.55 | |
| 2.10 | 3.75 | 3.30 | 1.53 | 2.45 | 1.44 | 2.63 | |
| 2.26 | 3.83 | 3.09 | 1.56 | 2.52 | — | — | |
| 2.11 | 3.33 | 2.80 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.00 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.60 | |
| 2.20 | 3.70 | 3.00 | 1.53 | 2.50 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 2.24 | 3.84 | 3.24 | 1.50 | 2.38 | 1.45 | 2.59 | |
Betano | 2.12 | 3.75 | 3.20 | 1.57 | 2.47 | 1.47 | 2.55 |
BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.80 | 3.00 | 1.51 | 2.34 | 1.44 | 2.60 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Rennes leads 6-4)In the last 10 matches between Lyon and Rennes, Rennes has won 6 times while Lyon has secured 4 victories, with no draws recorded. The scorelines indicate a mix of competitive encounters, but Rennes has often been the stronger side, particularly with three wins by a margin of two or more goals. Lyon's victories have been more closely contested, with two of their wins featuring scorelines of 4-2 and 4-1, suggesting that while Lyon can compete, Rennes has had the upper hand in this matchup. The last win for Lyon came in November 2023, highlighting a recent trend of Rennes dominance.
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lille | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 10 | WWDW |
| 2 |  Monaco | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 10 | DWWW |
| 3 | Rennes | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | WWWD |
| 4 | Lyon | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 8 | DWDW |
| 5 |  Paris FC | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 8 | DWWD |
| 6 |  Strasbourg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 7 | DWWL |
| 16 |  Le Havre | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 | DLDL |
| 17 |  Toulouse | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2 | DLDL |
| 18 |  Nice | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 2 | LDLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonLyon have won 12 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Lyon 3-1 and drew with Lyon 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 7D 10L from the last 34 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Rennes have won 6 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat Angers 1-2 and lost to Sunderland 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 4D 11L from the last 30 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedLyon4-2-3-1Confirmed
Rennes4-1-4-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersLyon
No reported absences
Rennes
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Mathieu Vernice has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Mathieu Vernice to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Lyon have averaged 7.8 corners per match at home; Rennes 8.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 8.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Lyon have generated 1.77 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 5.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Lyon player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
